Intense heat waves in Europe won't just threaten humans over the next 25 years. New research shows significant portions of the region's 70 million cattle are increasingly vulnerable.
What's happening?
Researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis projected where and how these impacts will be felt on the cattle population in a study published in Sustainable Agriculture.
They investigated whether already vulnerable areas would be most affected by regional differences in forecasts. Another focus was how threats varied between cattle that were kept indoors and those that grazed outdoors.
Despite heat waves' measurable impacts on cattle, the study authors said that precise assessments of cattle exposure to heat waves in Europe were lacking. Their research uncovered that 11-22% of European cattle, or 6.2-13.7 million animals, could face 15 or more days of heat waves by 2050.
Cows with no outdoor access were particularly at risk. The percentage of those livestock that could face that level of increased heat stress was 18-35% as opposed to 4.5-12% for cattle with pasture access. The research confirmed that the biggest threats were concentrated in areas already facing challenges.
"These are mostly southern European countries such as Italy, Spain, Greece, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria — many of which rely heavily on cattle farming for rural economies and traditional products like protected cheeses," principal research scholar Linda See said in a news release.
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Why are increasing heat waves' threat to European cattle important?
Cattle's role in the agricultural sector is under increasing threat as Europe struggles to square its pollution with climate action goals, farmer welfare, and food needs.
"Heat waves already threaten cattle welfare, productivity, and survival, while also disrupting grassland and feed production," IIASA researcher Žiga Malek said.
The study shows the problem is especially acute for Southern Europe. As See noted, in rural areas of countries such as Italy and Spain, famous cheeses and the cattle industry are a big part of identities and economic viability.
If nothing changes, those cattle might be exposed to increasingly unsafe conditions that threaten their survival and the economic prospects of farmers.
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What's being done to protect European cattle?
With how vast the region is, the situation is complex.
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$200 or more 💰 "There is no one-size-fits-all solution in the European cattle sector," Malek stated, calling for region-specific measures.
Options include planting trees for shade, adding shelters to the landscape, and optimizing barns to generate better ventilation and cooling. In the most hard-hit areas, reducing cattle numbers might be a necessity.
"While the necessary changes may be uncomfortable … acting early can ease the transition to a more climate-resilient and environmentally friendly European cattle sector," Malek concluded.
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