Prices for popular beverage set to soar as one of world's largest producers faces crippling droughts — here's what you need to know

Rising global temperatures seem to be having a significant impact on one of the world's largest producers of tea.

What's happening?

Kenya, the world's leading exporter of black tea, is facing a devastating drought. Lakes, rivers, and reservoirs are drying up, and agriculture is taking a huge hit.

The Tea Board of Kenya reported a significant decline in tea production — down nearly 20 percent from the previous year — according to The Peninsula in mid-June. The TBK attributed the drop to very hot, dry conditions as well as a delay in the rainy season, while experts are worried that extreme weather may be the new norm.

"Going by the trend for the first quarter, production for the whole year is projected at 580 million kilograms, which will be lower compared to 594 million kilograms in 2024," the board said, per the regional outlet, though it did go on to note that 2023's production was just 570 million kilograms.

Why is a hit to Kenya's tea production concerning?

The past decade has been the world's warmest on record, and 2025 is on track to be the planet's second-warmest year ever recorded. 

This is projected to be a big problem for agricultural business around the globe, including for Kenya's tea, which typically grows in warm, humid conditions.

Scalding temperatures and years-long droughts are wreaking havoc on the industry, which "employs approximately 10% of the country's population," according to a 2020 report, "and is largely managed by smallholders." 

A report from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, cited by The Peninsula, also noted that tea export revenue dropped by about 20 percent in the first quarter this year, "totaling 46.07 billion shillings (about 361 million U.S. dollars)."

Farmers and other agricultural workers suffer financially when crops fail, and it's not just Kenya that's in trouble. In 2024, the United States alone lost $11 billion in crops due to heat waves, droughts, and fires.

Massive crop failures cost more than money too. Globally, billions could be at risk of malnutrition, starvation, pregnancy complications, and more.

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Hundreds of millions of people already live in hunger worldwide, and "if the Earth's temperature were to rise 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, 1.8 billion more people would be pushed into hunger," according to the World Food Programme in 2021.

What's being done to prevent crop loss?

As temperatures continue to rise, weather events can become extreme and unpredictable. 

Farmers and researchers are looking to adapt agricultural strategies to compensate, such as improving water management, boosting crop drought-resistance, and reducing production waste. Many of these practices draw on Indigenous knowledge.

In the long term, reducing heat-trapping pollution will help address the root of the problem: a warming planet. In Kenya, experts have also been exploring the use of solar energy and agricultural waste — such as husks and macadamia shells — as cleaner and more sustainable fuels to meet the industry's power needs.

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