At the end of October, nearly 80% of Illinois remained trapped in moderate to extreme drought conditions despite recent rainfall. While conditions have improved slightly since then, state climatologists warned that drought conditions are creating the perfect setup for severe weather shortages heading into the 2026 growing season, according to FarmWeekNow.com. 

What's happening?

The U.S. Drought Monitor released on Oct. 30 showed 96% of Illinois was in some form of drought. The southern third of the state saw improvement from the week prior to the report's release, while areas of central and northern Illinois jumped from moderate to severe drought. 

The second half of October brought more rain to most of the state than August and September combined. Southern Illinois picked up between 2.5 and 5 inches of rain over one-and-a-half weeks, according to State Climatologist Trend Ford. 

However, the precipitation failed to break the drought overall in many areas. 

"That extreme drought has persisted despite about an inch of rain," Ford noted in the FarmWeekNow.com article. "The reason being, when you look around (that area), you wouldn't have known it picked up an inch of rain. So, it was helpful, but it wasn't drought breaking by any means."

Fall and winter precipitation will determine drought intensity heading into next year's growing season. Models for November's rain have been mixed, mostly pointing to near-normal precipitation and temperatures.

"Which, in my opinion, is a good thing because the last thing that I would want to see is a big dry signal, and right now we're just not seeing that in the outlook," Ford noted. 

As of Nov. 20, more than 70% of the state remained under moderate drought to exceptional drought conditions.

Why is the state's drought important?

The increasing frequency and intensity of droughts come directly from rising global temperatures and shifting weather patterns. These changes deplete water supplies and cause agricultural losses, and they increase wildfire risks across affected regions. 

Climate change supercharges extreme weather events, making them more powerful and dangerous to communities. 

Ford commented in the article about the long-term threats for the state: "If you remember the drought of 2012 and really any big drought in Illinois over the last maybe 100 years, it starts with a very dry fall that depletes all your water resources and dries out your soil moisture, then it just carries through to the next year."

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Meanwhile, Western states are facing historic water shortages while agricultural communities are struggling with crop losses related to prolonged dry conditions. 

What's being done about droughts?

Climate models are leaning toward a La Niña winter, which typically brings wetter conditions to southern Illinois. "If the atmosphere plays to type during La Niña, it usually paints most of the southern two-thirds of the state wetter than normal, which is exactly what we need," Ford said. 

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