Report uncovers worrying trend as staple grocery crops slowly diminish: 'Important ramifications for prices and food security'

Rising temperatures and warming waters worldwide have literally decimated yields for a key crop, newly published research found.

What's happening?

Diminished crop yields due to extreme weather and other climate-related factors are a well-documented issue — but a study recently published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences sought to quantify the impact of hotter, drier farmlands on wheat crops.

Wheat is one of the most crucial crops on the planet. According to National Geographic, grains like "wheat, rice, and corn, are the most popular crops in the world, with wheat as the most widely grown crop overall." 

Carbon Brief analyzed the study as part of their ongoing focus on climate and crop yields, observing that wheat and corn were mentioned most in "news stories of crops being destroyed around the world by heat, drought, flood, and other weather extremes in 2023-24." 

Researchers linked "agroclimatic data to crop productivity," and estimated "that climate trends have caused current global yields of wheat, maize, and barley" to plummet significantly. Barley was down by 13% in their calculations.

Wheat yields were 10% lower than they would typically be, scientists projected.

Why are wheat crop yields so important?

The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said that while there are approximately 50,000 edible plants on Earth, "60 percent of the world's food energy intake" comes from just three crops — wheat, rice, and corn.

Per the UN's FAO, "15 crop plants provide 90 percent of the world's food energy intake, with three — rice, maize, and wheat — making up two-thirds of this."

AgFunderNews assessed the study alongside agricultural trends in the United States, noting that the "national outlook points to an above-average year" for wheat crop yields, adding that "regional [fluctuations] are surprisingly high."

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Even with above-average yields on occasion, volatility can wreak havoc on farms, and unpredictable supply levels drive prices on staple goods like flour and bread higher.

The study's authors warned that a 10% drop was more dire than it appeared, citing "important ramifications for prices and food security" globally.

What's being done about wheat crop yields?

At the end of the study's introduction, researchers expressed that findings like theirs could help farmers "guide adaptation efforts and model improvements" to offset the impact of excessive heat and extreme weather on staple crops like wheat.

Scientists have also developed fortified, drought-resistant wheat strains and continue to work on helping key crops withstand a changing climate.

At an individual level, growing your own food is one way to make your pantry more resistant to food supply chain fluctuations.

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