The authors of a 2024 study published in the journal Nature examined the impact of a shifting climate on economic futures. 

It was estimated that global income would drop by 19% by 2050, and that, by the middle of the century, there would be a 99% chance that repairing climate damage would be costlier than building resilience to it. 

However, according to the Associated Press, the authors have updated these numbers due to minor data errors. 

The new numbers show a 17% drop in global income and a 91% chance that fixing damage rather than building resilience will be costlier. 

What does a shifting climate mean for the economy?

Many scientists have studied the impact of a shifting climate on the economy, although a lot of the focus has been on extreme weather events, such as tornadoes, droughts, and floods.

However, the researchers in the 2024 study determined that global temperatures (which continue to rise) will impact the economy the most. 

Rising temperatures affect labor productivity and crop yields, both of which affect the economy, and increase the intensity of extreme weather. 

Plus, because current temperatures are so unprecedented compared to the historical average — the planet has not experienced a month cooler than the 20th-century average since 1979, per the National Centers for Environmental Information — they are unpredictable.

Why is the economic impact of rising temperatures important?

Not only will continuously rising temperatures cost economies trillions of dollars (the original study estimated a $38 trillion bite to global income by 2049), but they will disproportionately affect lower-income regions. 

This means less well-off areas will face the worst climate consequences, while also not having enough money to adapt to these changes.

For example, one study estimated that Brazil would face a 33.1% drop in gross domestic product by 2100 due to increasingly higher temperatures. 

Meanwhile, the 2024 study predicted that the poorest countries in the world will experience 61% more income loss than the wealthiest. 

According to AP News, a climate economist at Columbia Business School, Gernot Wagner, said about the 2024 study, "Rapidly accumulating climate risks will only make the numbers go up even more."

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How countries are tackling the economic impact issue

Though the costs of tackling a shifting climate are high, waiting to address it costs immensely more, as evidenced by the updated 2024 study. 

As such, some governments are taking steps to mitigate climate damage. Pakistan created a policy that allows companies to earn profits by investing in environmentally friendly projects, while Canada offers investment tax credits to encourage businesses to make sustainable investments. 

Elsewhere, Turkey enacted a law aimed at achieving net-zero pollution by 2053.

As countries continue to take steps to reduce the impact rising temperatures have on the environment and the economy, the future implications may also decrease.

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