Food production is facing a dangerous new phenomenon that can impact the yields of three vital crops: corn, soybean, and sorghum.
What's happening?
A study led by the University of British Columbia found that hotter and drier conditions exacerbated by rising global temperatures are making crop failures increasingly common.
As the planet warms, every additional degree means year-to-year variability in yields for each crop. For corn, the pendulum swing of yields varies by 7%; for sorghum, 10%; and for soybeans, a whopping 19%.
These events were previously considered once-in-a-century failures that would cripple regional food supplies for years afterwards. The study's experts predicted that climate instability could cause these issues to occur once a decade if temperatures continue to increase.
Why are increased crop failures concerning?
These crop failures can have devastating results worldwide, from increased food prices to regional famines. This research is the first to directly quantify the impact of the unpredictability and instability of annual yields.
At current warming rates worldwide, if global temperatures increase by just two degrees, soybean crop failures that once would hit once a century could happen every 25 years. If current trends persist, by 2100, those crop failures could happen every eight years.
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Lower-income regions, such as Sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, and South Asia, are vulnerable to this instability, as they heavily rely on rainfall to put food on the table and don't have the backup plans that richer areas have. However, more affluent regions aren't immune to this trend.
For farmers, a single crop failure can mean the difference between keeping their farm alive and going under. If enough farms worldwide face that reality, that impact will extend beyond that local community.
"Not everyone grows food, but everyone needs to eat," said Dr. Jonathan Proctor, lead author on the study. "When harvests become more unstable, everyone will feel it."
What's being done about preserving crop yields?
Since lack of rainfall and dry heat are the concrete forces driving these crop failures, irrigation can mean the difference in the success of an individual harvest.
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Not enough time ⏳ The study's experts also call for urgent investment in drought and heat-resistant crop varietals, better weather forecasting, and other important safety nets.
Ultimately, though, it's vital to address the root cause of this pendulum swing: rising temperatures exacerbated by human-caused pollution. Otherwise, communities worldwide will continue to struggle.
"Farmers and the societies they feed don't live off of averages — they generally live off of what they harvest each year," Dr. Proctor said. "A big shock in one bad year can mean real hardship, especially in places without sufficient access to crop insurance or food storage."
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