Space junk in Earth's orbit may increase because of the effects of the same heat-trapping gases that are polluting the air and warming the planet, according to a recent study.

What's happening?

A team led by Massachusetts Institute of Technology researchers determined that, with Earth's warming, space debris could accumulate enough to reduce the low Earth orbit area available for satellites by between a third and 82% by the year 2100, as the Associated Press detailed. 

The reason for this, per the study published in Nature Sustainability in March, is that climatic changes high above ground could reduce the effectiveness of the upper atmosphere in clearing up space litter. 

"Part of the greenhouse effect that warms the air near Earth's surface also cools the upper parts of the atmosphere where space starts and satellites zip around in low orbit," AP science writer Seth Borenstein explained. "The cooling also makes the upper atmosphere less dense, which reduces the drag on the millions of pieces of human-made debris and satellites."

Because of that drag, space trash normally gets pulled back toward Earth and burns up along the way. This cleanup effect weakens when the upper atmosphere is cooler and less dense. 

Why is an increase in space debris concerning?

Orbiting debris endangers equipment that people on Earth depend on for numerous reasons.

"Rapid expansion in the utilization of satellites in low Earth orbit for communications, weather forecasting, navigation, defence and more has increased humanity's reliance on the long-term sustainability of this region," the study noted.

The AP reported that there are millions of pieces of space junk of about one-ninth of an inch or larger that can carry the impact of a bullet. 

"A piece of space debris the size of a blueberry can create the impact of a falling anvil," per the Space Debris 101 page of The Aerospace Corporation, a company that tracks orbiting items.

"We rely on the atmosphere to clean up our debris," Will Parker, the study's lead author, told the AP. "There's no other way to remove debris. It's trash. It's garbage. And there are millions of pieces of it."

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The researchers used modeling to calculate the satellite carrying capacity of low Earth orbit under different carbon pollution scenarios (with different abilities to burn up trash). Possibilities ranged widely, but the estimated reduction in capacity by 2100 was 82% under the worst-case scenario for the most useful part of the orbital space.

What's being done about space debris?

Scientists and space companies are exploring ways to clean up potentially costly space waste — or to minimize the creation of more.

Meanwhile, reducing the impacts of atmospheric pollution on space debris comes down to reducing that pollution. Under the researchers' better-case scenarios, carbon pollution is lower, and the atmosphere keeps burning space trash at a higher rate.

Reducing pollution carries with it the connected benefits of limiting other costs and risks to people and the planet that come with overheating at Earth's surface.

In addition to government and industry actions to reduce pollution, individuals can take actions big and small — from installing solar panels to finding ways to save money and energy at home.

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