Scientists say they have finally explained a long-running sea-level rise mystery, tracing nearly all of the ocean's rise over the last six decades to a clearer mix of warming water, melting ice, and smaller land-water changes.
The trend is also speeding up. As detailed by ScienceDaily, the annual rate of global sea level rise has increased from just over 2 millimeters per year since 1960 to nearly 4 millimeters per year between 2005 and 2023.
An international group of climate researchers reported in Science Advances that since 1960, global sea levels have risen by an average of 2.06 millimeters per year. Between 2005 and 2023, that rate rose to 3.94 millimeters per year — almost twice as fast.
The largest contributor was ocean warming, which accounted for 43% of the rise. Seawater expands as it warms, taking up more room and lifting sea levels.
Mountain glaciers accounted for 27% of sea level rise since 1960, Greenland for 15%, Antarctica for 12%, and changes in land water storage for the remaining 3%.
Researchers also said they appear to have solved a persistent mismatch between observed sea level rise and the total from known causes, a long-running problem in understanding sea level rise.
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Rising seas are among the clearest and most persistent effects of rising global temperatures caused by human activity, and scientists say they are extremely difficult to stop once underway.
The study shows that the drivers of rising seas have changed over time. Ocean warming and reduced land water storage were major factors after 1960. Since 1993, however, faster melting of glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has become a much larger driver of the acceleration.
That helps explain why the ocean is rising faster now than it did in earlier decades.
The researchers said that even stabilizing planet-warming pollution levels would not halt sea-level rise anytime soon. Scientists expect that increase to continue for many centuries.
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Sea level rise is a global problem with multiple overlapping causes. Tracking ocean heat, glacier loss, ice-sheet melt, and land-water changes requires data and cross-border expertise.
Sea level rise is not a temporary fluctuation. It is an ongoing trend tied to warming, and improved research can help communities better understand what is coming and why.
Scientists at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences led the project, joined by contributors from Tulane University, the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, the University of St. Thomas, and partner institutions in France.
"This work shows that, with better instruments, processes, and smarter analysis, this knowledge gap can be closed," said Prof. John Abraham of the University of St. Thomas, a co-author.
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