Researchers sound alarm after advanced modeling reveals crisis threatening millions — here's what you need to know

According to a recent study published in Nature, the effects of rampant carbon pollution have the potential to wreak havoc across India. And as sea levels continue to rise, a number of the country's most prominent coastal cities are facing increased threats of flooding.

What's happening?

To get a better understanding of the future impact of rising sea levels, a team of researchers utilized advanced computer models that were able to handle "data relationships and both temporal patterns and sophisticated environmental data."

These models allowed the team the chance to more effectively evaluate flooding projections of key Indian cities such as Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Visakhapatnam, Surat, Kochi, Thiruvananthapuram, and Mangaluru.

In order to predict which of those cities faced the greatest flooding threat, the researchers referenced four shared socioeconomic pathways emission scenarios, which describe how societal factors might evolve in the future. This provided the team with context to understand how each Indian city may experience climate impacts, potential mitigation, and adaptation strategies.

Why are flood projections in India important?

According to the study, regions throughout India could expect a minimum sea level rise of three feet by 2100. However, in the most extreme scenarios laid out by the SSPs, prolonged high pollution rates could lead to even greater sea levels along the coasts.

The researchers identified Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai as the three cities facing the most substantial flooding risks. They noted each is in a low-lying area, making them especially prone to encroaching flood waters and other severe weather events. When paired with their dense populations and crucial infrastructure, the three cities could be significantly impacted by flooding.

Substantial flooding can result in severe damage to properties and disruption of city services. This includes damage to roads, bridges, and homes. Not only can this lead to overwhelming economic loss, but it also elevates the risk of death.

While not projected to experience the most severe impacts, Kochi, Thiruvananthapuram, and Mangaluru were also forecast to experience "moderate flooding perils."

What can be done about sea level rise in India?

The continued rise of global temperatures has sped up the rate of sea level rise. Warmer temperatures have increased the melting of glaciers and ice sheets in the Arctic, which adds meltwater to the ocean and causes it to expand. And as air temperatures rise, so do surface temperatures in the ocean. This can cause the water to expand in volume, taking up more space and contributing to rising sea levels.

One of the most effective tools against increasing global temperatures is carbon pollution reduction policies and efforts to utilize renewable energy resources. As noted by the researchers, cities will also need to shore up their planning and climate adaptation strategies. This can include investing in flood protection infrastructure such as mangroves and wetlands.

"This intervention demands that climate adaptation requires professionals from two or more disciplines to link environmental science and urban planning with sociological considerations for creating equitable and effective climate response programs," the study reads.

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