Nation warns ongoing concern with Atlantic Ocean could be 'a direct threat … to national security': 'Time is running out'

Iceland has sounded the alarm regarding the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, declaring it a national security risk that requires its immediate attention.  

What's happening?

As reported by Reuters, officials in Iceland are warning that the collapse of the AMOC could lead to a modern ice age scenario in Northern Europe. This would result in plummeting temperatures, increased snowfall and ice accumulation, and the potential destabilization of weather patterns across the world. 

Not only would this harm the agriculture industry and vulnerable ecosystems in Europe, but other regions could also face an existential threat due to far-reaching and severe climate impacts. 

"It is a direct threat to our national resilience and security," said Iceland Climate Minister Johann Pall Johannsson in an email, per Reuters. "[This] is the first time a specific climate-related phenomenon has been formally brought before the National Security Council as a potential existential threat." 

Why is the potential collapse of the AMOC important?

According to the Integrated Carbon Observation System, the AMOC is a crucial component of our global climate, transporting heat from the tropics to the North Atlantic, helping keep Europe's climate balanced and relatively mild. It also distributes nutrients essential for marine life and plays a significant role in the global distribution of heat, salt, and carbon. 

However, rising global temperatures have threatened to completely disrupt the AMOC. The addition of massive amounts of freshwater into the North Atlantic, mainly from melting ice sheets, glaciers, and increased precipitation, is directly linked to warmer global temperatures.  

A slowdown in the AMOC could lead to more extreme weather events in some regions around the globe, while triggering extended droughts in others. This could result in a devastating blow to local agriculture industries that may jeopardize food security for millions of people. 

What's being done about the potential collapse of the AMOC?

In an effort to slow the continued rise of global temperatures and prevent the melting of Arctic glaciers and ice sheets, many countries have enacted policies to reduce their reliance on planet-heating fossil fuels. Other initiatives look to promote the widespread adoption of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power.  

"The science is evolving quite rapidly and time is running out to do anything about it because the tipping point may well be quite close," said oceanographer and climatologist Stefan Rahmstorf, per Reuters. 

Iceland's national security risk designation of the potential collapse of the AMOC allows the country's government to develop worst-case scenario plans. This may buy them valuable time to put proactive measures in place while safeguarding vulnerable industries. 

"Sea ice could affect marine transport; extreme weather could severely affect our capabilities to maintain any agriculture and fisheries, which are central to our economy and food systems," added Johannsson, according to Reuters. "We cannot afford to wait for definitive, long-term research before acting."  

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