Experts issue alarming prediction on future spread of malaria: 'One of the biggest drivers'

Warming temperatures, funding struggles, and population increases could reverse years of progress in fighting malaria in Africa, according to experts.

What's happening?

Nigerian news outlet The Nation summarized a Boston Consulting Group study that projects an additional 554,000 people could die from malaria between 2030 and 2049 if we stay on the current course of rising global temperatures. 

Approximately 92% of those deaths are predicted to be directly attributed to extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts. 

To reach this conclusion, the researchers plugged in anticipated climate-related events, especially changes in rainfall, temperature, and population exposure, to assess future malaria burdens. 

This undercuts ambitions to eliminate malaria from Africa by 2030, according to The Nation, which added that the burden of the surge was expected to fall heavily on children.

"Extreme weather is one of the biggest drivers of malaria spikes," Dr. Patric Epopa, a leading entomologist at the Health Sciences Research Institute, told the publication. "Displaced communities are often left unprotected, without mosquito nets, indoor spraying, or access to early diagnosis and treatment."

Why is this study important?

Malaria is a life-threatening disease, with symptoms including fever, chills, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, muscle or joint pain, rapid heart rate, and cough, according to the Mayo Clinic. 

About 95% of all malaria deaths occur in Africa, with children under the age of 5 being at the highest risk of death, according to the World Health Organization.

Meanwhile, malaria and other mosquito-borne illnesses are expanding their reach as disease-carrying mosquitoes are taking advantage of warmer and moister weather. 

For instance, Climate.gov said malaria risk zones have reached higher elevations in the Ethiopian Highlands due to rising temperatures. 

Do you worry about air pollution in your town? All the time 💯 Often 😢 Only sometimes 😟 Never 😎 Click your choice to see results and speak your mind.

What's more, a study predicted that several mosquito species populations will soon expand their ranges in the Americas due to warming weather trends.

What's being done about malaria?

Target Malaria says that despite widespread adoption of artemisinin-based combination therapies — considered the first-line treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria — and insecticide-treated nets, many regions still suffer high malaria burdens due to insecticide resistance and environmental factors that reduce the effectiveness of these tools.

Still, there is a glimmer of hope in the fight against malaria. For one, a new one-dose malaria vaccine has demonstrated 90% protection against the disease. And scientists say they can now treat mosquitoes with drugs that will kill the parasite that carries malaria.

However, some of these solutions could face fiscal challenges, as the U.S. recently announced it was halting funding for malaria aid and research. 

Though the U.S. has historically been a top donor government to anti-malaria efforts, the Trump administration's FY 2026 budget request includes $424 million for the disease, a decrease of $381 million.

Join our free newsletter for good news and useful tips, and don't miss this cool list of easy ways to help yourself while helping the planet.