The global temperature is continuing to rise, and the impact on extreme weather events is becoming more apparent. Among the many concerning effects of the changing climate is the way tropical cyclones are intensifying along with associated flooding.

Findings from a study published in npj Natural Hazards by researchers from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and North Carolina State University reveal that storms could exacerbate complex flooding effects and cause more widespread flooding in areas that were previously unaffected by these types of weather events. Severe consequences for communities and ecosystems could include longer recovery times, economic instability, and loss of biodiversity.

What's happening?

The study found that under a scenario of 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) of global heating, the flooding caused by tropical cyclones becomes significantly more severe. Using advanced models, researchers analyzed three major hurricanes — Floyd (1999), Matthew (2016), and Florence (2018) — to simulate flooding patterns from now and in the future.

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The findings show a 65% increase in areas affected by compound flooding, which happens when coastal and inland flooding overlap, compared to today. Based on the models, floodwaters in these areas would rise by more than 2.6 feet (0.8 meters), reaching places that haven't flooded before. This kind of flooding messes with ecosystems and damages infrastructure, pushing emergency services to their limits — similar to what happened during Hurricane Katrina and the Los Angeles wildfires.

Why is this important?

Higher sea levels, driven by melting glaciers and thermal expansion, can combine with heavy rainfall to magnify flood risks. In turn, storm surges are pushed farther inland and overwhelm rivers and drainage systems.

Researchers noted that "increases in flood depths and extent have significant implications for infrastructure damage, but also potential disruptions due to longer durations of inundation impacting response and recovery times."

Sustained flooding threatens homes, businesses, and transportation networks, hitting economically vulnerable communities the hardest. In river basins, it could devastate agriculture by damaging crops and farmland, further fueling food insecurity.

What's being done about it?

Researchers have proposed new floodplain management practices and resilient urban designs to protect against compound flooding. These include elevating critical infrastructure, restoring natural barriers such as wetlands, and revisiting building codes to account for future climate scenarios.

Globally, organizations including the U.N. Environment Programme, the World Resources Institute, and Climate Central are advancing solutions such as improved stormwater management systems to prevent flooding in urban areas during extreme weather events. Some companies are producing systems to monitor water levels in real time to enable quicker evacuation and mitigation responses.

Reducing reliance on dirty energy, prioritizing energy-efficient housing, and backing green infrastructure initiatives are key steps to tackling the rising global temperature driving these events. While the challenges posed by compound flooding are major, proactive measures by scientists, policymakers, and communities are protecting against the escalating dangers of the changing climate.

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