Rising temperatures and a tenacious, established invasive species can now transmit an "excruciating" tropical disease across most of Europe, as detailed in a new study in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface.
What's happening?
Chikungunya, a vector-borne illness spread by infected mosquitoes, affects more than 1 million people each year, according to the European Climate and Health Observatory.
The Asian tiger mosquito transmits the chikungunya virus to humans more efficiently than other mosquito-borne viruses, the observatory said.
As the Guardian noted, chikungunya can be extremely painful, and the observatory indicated that rare, life-threatening complications can result, particularly in vulnerable populations.
Asian tiger mosquitoes weren't documented in Europe until 1979, but higher average temperatures have further broadened their range. Consequently, most of Europe is now at elevated risk of contracting the tropical disease domestically.
Study lead author Sandeep Tegar of the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology warned that, given the rate of warming in Europe, the spread of the mosquito and chikungunya to the continent's coldest northern reaches was inevitable.
"The rate of global warming in Europe is approximately double the rate of global warming at global scale, and the lower temperature limit for virus spread matters a lot, so our new estimates are quite shocking," he said.
"The northward expansion of the disease is just a matter of time."
Why is this concerning?
Chikungunya wasn't the only vector-borne illness making headlines, hinting at a problem beyond a single species or pathogen.
An outbreak of Nipah virus in Southeast Asia prompted elevated security and screening at border checkpoints, and last year, a study in The Lancet Planetary Health identified an uptick in cases of chikungunya and dengue fever in Europe.
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$200 or more 💰 In 2024, scientists were alarmed to detect the first-ever cases of sloth virus in Europe, another vector-borne pathogen, while in North America, tick-borne diseases surged.
The newly published study found that the chikungunya virus was more resilient than previously thought, capable of spreading at lower temperatures than expected.
Dr. Steven White, who is also affiliated with UKCEH, explained why the study's findings were so alarming.
"Twenty years ago, if you said we were going to have chikungunya and dengue in Europe, everybody would have said you were mad: These are tropical diseases," he said, before emphasizing that the researchers' conclusions were exceptionally straightforward.
"This is down to this invasive mosquito and climate change — it really is as simple as that," White added.
What's being done about it?
As Tegar and White highlighted, if governments don't work to limit harmful carbon pollution and slow the rise in temperatures, vector-borne illnesses like chikungunya will continue to spread into new areas.
Individuals can take precautions, such as wearing long clothing and using sufficient insect repellent, but calling on leaders to act on critical climate issues can drive broader change.
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