Artificial intelligence's environmental footprint may be much bigger than many people realize.
New research indicates that AI's climate toll reaches past the enormous electricity use of data centers. Researchers say the technology may also increase warming emissions by helping oil and gas companies extract and produce more fossil fuels.
Here's what to know
According to Futurism, a new paper published in NPJ Climate Action estimates that AI could be associated with fossil fuel emissions equal to about three to 13 times the emissions directly tied to data centers.
Much of that projected impact comes from how the oil and gas sector is putting AI to work, as companies are using it to find more oil, raise output, and widen production.
Will and Holly Alpine — both former Microsoft managers who now research sustainability — led the study, the outlet reported.
In the paper, the authors wrote, "Predominant analyses examine the relationship between datacenter energy demand, renewables optimization, and demand-side efficiencies, but insufficiently address how AI also reshapes fossil fuel supply economics."
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According to Futurism, the authors say the additional pollution AI helps generate through industrial uses — its "enabled emissions" — exceeds the "avoided emissions" that might come from using AI to improve renewable energy or energy efficiency.
The paper also highlighted closer relationships between big tech and fossil fuel companies, pointing to Microsoft's 20-year agreement with Chevron involving a massive natural gas plant and Amazon building what Futurism described as the largest fossil fuel plant in the United States.
More background
AI is closely tied to the energy grid because every chatbot prompt, image-generator request, and model training run depends on electricity-intensive computing infrastructure.
As that demand rises quickly, utilities and developers may turn to fossil fuel-powered electricity generation to keep up, deepening pollution even as the tech industry promotes AI as a tool for innovation and progress.
AI can help optimize renewable energy systems, improve demand-side efficiency, and support grid management, but, the paper argues, those gains may be outweighed if AI is also being deployed to expand oil and gas extraction.
The environmental impact may also depend on what AI is designed to do — and who stands to benefit from it.
More fossil fuel expansion can mean dirtier air, more climate pollution, and added strain on the power systems communities rely on. Beyond emissions, AI's rapid growth has also raised broader concerns about resource use and how the technology is being deployed across society.
What's being done?
With AI's climate effects coming into sharper view, Will and Holly Alpine say stricter guardrails are needed.
They argue, as reported by Futurism, that policymakers, companies, and researchers should not limit climate accounting to data center operations alone, but should also examine whether AI is helping expand industries that drive emissions even higher.
The study points to a need for tougher scrutiny of partnerships between tech companies and oil giants. If AI is being marketed as a climate solution while also helping extract more fossil fuels, those contradictions may become harder for regulators and the public to ignore.
Better transparency around how AI is powered — and what it is used for — could help shape future rules.
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