Tesla CEO Elon Musk's announcement on X that the AI5 chip was "almost done" was met with weary skepticism after years of delayed timelines and unmet promises.
What's happening?
On Jan. 17, Musk said AI5 was nearing completion and suggested that another, more powerful chip — AI6 — could be ready in merely nine months.
"Aiming for a 9 month design cycle," Musk wrote. "Join us to work on what I predict will be the highest volume AI chips in the world by far!"
Musk first revealed AI5 at a shareholders meeting in June 2024, claiming the next-gen self-driving chip would be in all Tesla electric vehicles, as well as humanoid robot Optimus, in approximately 18 months. He said it would be 10 times more capable than Hardware 4.
While Tesla is not far outside that 18-month window, Electrek's Fred Lambert warned consumers to take Musk's announcement with "a massive grain of salt."
"Today's news that the 'design is almost done' contrasts with his claiming that the design was 'finished' back in July 2025," Lambert pointed out. Musk also claimed Tesla had "just completed design" on AI5 at the annual shareholders meeting in 2024.
Why is this important?
The emergence of self-driving EVs was undoubtedly a milestone for tech enthusiasts and forward-thinking dreamers, but autonomous EVs hold significance for everyday consumers as well. They could revolutionize transportation, making it cleaner, safer, and more affordable.
Already, Waymo — an Alphabet-owned Tesla rival in autonomous technology, at least in Musk's estimation — has completed hundreds of millions of rider-only miles across four major U.S. cities. According to its safety data, Waymo's self-driving EVs have led to 90% less crashes with serious injury or worse compared to an average human driver.
However, in 2025, Tesla struggled to inspire confidence as sales lagged. Of course, Musk's foray into politics diminished the brand's reputation in the eyes of many. A series of high-profile robotaxi crashes has also raised concerns about the viability of Tesla's self-driving technology, possibly damaging confidence in autonomous EV technology as a whole.
"If Tesla can't get its software to run unsupervised on the millions of HW3 and HW4 cars on the road today, does it really matter if AI5 is 'almost done'?" Lambert wrote. "... In short, this doesn't seem to be the solution to Tesla's problem of solving unsupervised self-driving."
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A competitive EV market is another factor that has dampened enthusiasm for Tesla, but that's good news if you're interested in making your next car an EV. If you want to get your hands on a zero-tailpipe-emission vehicle with lower lifetime operating costs, you have tons of options.
Meanwhile, Lambert believes Musk is unlikely to deliver on his promises about the development of AI5, AI6, and more — at least on the timetable he laid out.
"Even consumer electronics giants like Apple operate on annual cycles that are years in the making," he wrote. "Don't get me wrong, it is exciting to see Tesla pushing the envelope on custom silicon. However … AI5 feels like classic Musk over-optimism."
Others had a more pessimistic take on Tesla.
"They have no idea how to develop things in generations. They only know how to work like a start-up … then try to keep running faster than the consequences," one commenter said.
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