Elon Musk's bold growth prediction for Tesla's self-driving taxi service — made public after a recent call with investors — has caught the attention of his biggest rival in the subsector, according to reports from Reuters and Electrek. 

Waymo founder John Krafcik challenged Musk's claim that Tesla could soon command "90-something percent" of the self-driving cab market share. 

"And although Tesla hopes to compete with Waymo someday, they've failed utterly and completely at this for each of the 10 years they've been talking about it," he said, per Electrek's story. 

What's happening?

Krafcick likely took issue with the wider comments Musk made, in which the Tesla CEO said it was ironic that the Google-backed company is relying less on AI than his company, as Tesla depends entirely on cameras for its driverless tech while Waymo uses a combination of camera, radar, and lidar sensors — which cost more money.

"The issue with Waymo's cars is it costs way more money," Musk said. "... So, ironically, like, we're the ones to make the bet that a pure AI solution with cameras and what do you have? The car actually will listen for sirens and that kind of thing. It's the right move. And Waymo decided that an expensive sensor suite is the way to go, even though Google is very good at AI. So I'm wondering."

Musk's comments follow a turbulent time for Tesla, highlighted by a first-quarter sales dip of 13% and a 71% profit plunge, as Reuters and ABC News detailed. The woes came amid Musk's leadership role with the cost-cutting Department of Government Efficiency, under President Donald Trump. 

The cuts so far this year are purported to be $160 billion, mostly through a couple of hundred thousand federal layoffs and contract and lease cancellations, according to CNN and the Associated Press, which have been polarizing enough to sour some drivers from wanting to own a car from a company Musk runs. 

The self-driving rides, called Cybercabs, are positioned to be on roads moving "the financial needle in a significant way" by the second half of 2026, Musk said during the earnings call, per Reuters. 

Meanwhile, Waymo, which got its start in 2009 as a Google project, is already completing 250,000 self-driving rides weekly. The rideshare service is now available in Austin, L.A., Phoenix, and San Francisco, according to the company website. 

"Tesla has never competed with Waymo — they've never sold a robotaxi ride to a public rider, but they've sold a lot of cars," Krafcik said, per Electrek. 

Would you ride in a self-driving Tesla Robotaxi? Heck yes 👍 Probably 😏 Not anytime soon 🤔 No way 🙅 Click your choice to see results and speak your mind.

Why is the self-driving cab battle important?

Self-driving cars represent the next generation of clean electric vehicles. Innovations from Tesla, Waymo, and others are encouraging as we continue to shift to more planet-friendly transportation, eliminating thousands of pounds of harmful tailpipe exhaust for each gas burner that's parked, according to government data. The fumes are linked to lung, heart, and other health risks. 

Safety and cost are other key factors. Musk said his EVs are far cheaper to manufacture than Waymo's, though Waymo boasts more sensors. The company buys EVs and adds the sensor array to them. Tesla makes its own at scale with a camera-based driving system, per Electrek. 

As for safety, last year Waymo clocked 25 million self-driven miles. An insurance claim review found that the trips had "90% fewer insurance claims relating to property damage and bodily injuries," NBC Bay Area reported. 

Krafcik said his company's more expensive sensors were worth it, telling Business Insider that it's a "trivial cost-per-mile impact over the useful life of a robotaxi, while also providing massive quantifiable safety benefits."

What's next for self-driving cabs?

Waymo intends to expand its service area to Miami and Atlanta, according to its website. And Musk deemed Tesla's artificial intelligence and chip design teams as an "incredible" advantage, as part of the optimistic investor message reported by Electrek. 

Skeptics will cite the Cybertruck, which The Verge and others noted isn't selling as expected, as a reason to be wary of Musk's confidence. 

In the end, it remains a great time to buy an EV, regardless of brand. There are still tax breaks worth up to $7,500 available in addition to the estimated $1,500 in gas/maintenance costs you can save annually. It's all part of our transition to a cleaner transportation system that can include walking, biking, and self-driving taxis as well.

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