An academic article that directly influenced the Network for the Greening of the Financial System's (NGFS) climate policies was proven to be inaccurate.
What happened?
The article, published in Nature in April 2024, posited that the warming climate could push the global GDP toward a 19% loss by 2050. By 2100, researchers predicted that it would be down by over 60%.
To prevent this, the NGFS adopted a new damage function in November 2024 with the article's research in mind. That would be all well and good — if the research were accurate.
The study's accuracy was first called into question last December. In response, the study's authors revisited their findings. They removed each country from the original dataset one at a time and found that Uzbekistan's data was incorrectly processed, per The Washington Post.
After the researchers revised the study, they came to similar conclusions; according to the Post, their model predicted a 17% loss instead of 19%, though it's worth noting that some experts take issue with the model altogether.
Solomon Hsiang, scientist, economist, and one of the study's critics, told the Post, "Science doesn't work by changing the setup of an experiment to get the answer you want. This approach is antithetical to science."
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Regardless, the Bank Policy Institute (BPI) reports that the NGFS continues to use the same damage function based on incorrect data.
Why does this error matter?
The NGFS damage function is just the tip of the iceberg. This particular study was widely cited; at the time of writing, it has 168 citations. It served as the basis for numerous studies seeking climate solutions for urban centers, low-income countries, and other areas.
Scientists agree that the climate is warming at a rapid, unprecedented rate. To properly address this, however, organizations must incorporate accurate data into their policies and procedures. Keeping a damage function based on false information fails to address the actual matter at hand.
This error highlights the need for continuously updated studies and policies. As Hsiang told the Post, "If people are at all skeptical about how science functions — the answer is well, our team discovered this issue, and we believe transparency is super important. That's the ethos of science."
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Definitely 🥰 How ignoring the error could lead to more damage
Ultimately, human error is inevitable. However, errors must be acknowledged and accounted for. Otherwise, people will lose trust in their institutions and doubt the necessity for climate toolkits in the first place.
An estimated 29% of Americans do not believe that the changing climate is caused by human activity, and conspiracy theories about the weather spread rapidly online. Institutions like the NGFS must update their damage functions and policies as soon as they can to prevent erosion of public trust.
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