Valentine's Day treats are at risk as small bakeries struggle with rising chocolate costs: 'I don't know if I'll be able to continue'

Valentine's Day may become even more expensive for consumers as costs for a holiday staple ingredient surge.

What's happening?

As detailed by the San Francisco Chronicle, rising chocolate prices are threatening businesses that depend on cocoa for popular Valentine's Day gifts. 

For Rory Kandel, owner of Rory's Bakehouse in Napa, California, the uptick may be enough to cease operations, making her best-selling chocolate chip cookies no more. She is now paying twice as much for chocolate as she did in 2023, when she first opened her bakeshop. 

"If this rise in chocolate prices continues, it's going to put me in a position where I don't know if I'll be able to continue," she told the Chronicle. 

Why is this important?

Valentine's Day has become a treasured tradition for many Americans, who spent around $25.8 billion on the holiday in 2024, according to Statista. 

However, rising prices and business closures can dampen the romance, making consumers hesitant to spend and holiday goodies unavailable for those who planned to purchase as well as impacting product quality. 

Unfortunately, as the Chronicle noted, cocoa futures rose more than 300% on the Intercontinental Exchange over the past two years, leading Gary Guittard, president of Guittard Chocolate Co., to label the chocolate market as "dysfunctional" as businesses scramble to shore up their supplies. For instance, Hershey requested permission to purchase 18 times more cocoa than regulators allow. 

Rising global temperatures are driving the upheaval, resulting in more intense extreme weather that is threatening kitchen staples worldwide. As for cocoa, West Africa produces around 80% of the global supply, according to J.P. Morgan, but a prolonged drought has decimated crops. 

What's being done about this?

Chocolatiers are getting creative as they seek to keep costs down and their businesses afloat. Luis Villavelazquez, owner of Bellaria Dessert Studio, told the Chronicle that he is considering cocoa-free chocolate alternatives and developing more efficient techniques in the kitchen. 

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"This allows me to think of ways that will give us that same richness. We have to have chocolate," he said, adding that "last year was a bit nerve-wracking for us." 

Scientists may have also discovered more climate-resilient cocoa varieties. In the long term, though, reducing pollution causing the planet's unnatural warming (and subsequent extreme weather) would also help lower food prices — not to mention improve air quality, limiting days children must miss school because of pollution-linked diseases such as asthma. 

Actions could include adopting stricter emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles (a proposal supported by 72% of Americans, according to the American Lung Association) and investing in more walkable and bikeable infrastructure instead of highways (another proposal supported by the majority of Americans in a poll by Hattaway Communications).

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