The Storm Prediction Center, the country's first line of defense for severe thunderstorms, implemented a change during the first week of meteorological spring that is designed to improve its messaging. The division of the National Weather Service is putting that change into place during an active week for severe weather.
Before Tuesday, the Storm Prediction Center focused on the likelihood of damaging winds, large hail, or tornadoes striking a certain area using five levels of risk, ranging from marginal to high. The SPC issues daily "convective outlooks" to highlight regions of the country that may face these risks. Now it has added a new dimension to better describe the potential for impacts of severe weather: conditional intensity.
"Conditional Intensity adds another layer, highlighting areas that are more likely to experience more extreme events, such as violent tornadoes," explains the SPC. "For example, a wind event that is anticipated to generate many reports but few significant severe reports could have high coverage probabilities but a lower conditional intensity forecast. Conversely, an event where only one or two high-end storms are anticipated to occur could have low coverage probabilities but a higher conditional intensity forecast, suggesting that any storms that do form could result in more extreme impacts."
"Today isn't just a day that maybe there might be a tornado or two out there," Storm Prediction Center meteorologist Evan Bentley told the Washington Post. "Yeah, there might be a tornado or two out there, but if it occurs, it could be a pretty bad tornado. And so hopefully that'll help with that messaging piece, because that is a challenge."
The new conditional intensity included in the SPC outlooks ranges from "no intensity" to intensity level 3. For example, in the case of tornadoes, no intensity means any tornadoes that spin up would be mostly EF0-EF1 tornadoes that could produce winds as strong as 110 miles per hour. On the high end of the conditional intensity scale, level 3 means there is a potential for a more intense tornado, like a devastating EF4 tornado with winds of up to 200 miles per hour.
The change that started on Tuesday will be put to the test for at least three straight days this week. The SPC has outlined portions of at least 10 states containing over 15 million people for a marginal, slight, or enhanced risk, levels 1, 2, and 3 out of 4, respectively, of severe thunderstorms in its convective outlook for Thursday.
Friday's outlook includes parts of at least 13 states and nearly 57 million people within its designated risk areas. Almost 83 million people face various risk levels for severe thunderstorms on Saturday.
"Emergency managers and other decision makers have been relying on these Outlooks for decades to provide critical days of lead time to prepare for severe weather," notes the SPC. "But until now, there has not been a way to differentiate days when especially violent or extreme weather is expected. That changed in February 2026 with the addition of hazard severity information, called Conditional Intensity, which allows SPC forecasters to highlight areas at risk for more intense, violent storms."
Last year's severe weather season got off to a roaring start with nearly 500 tornadoes reported before the second month of meteorological spring, April, ended. Over another thousand tornadoes were reported before 2026 came to a close. There were also more than 17,000 reports of severe wind, and over 5,400 reports of severe hail.
Our overheating planet is like steroids for many forms of severe weather. The SPC hopes the adjustments it's made to its daily severe weather outlooks will at least prepare people for what could be coming.
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