Scientists are warning that if heat-trapping pollution continues to rise, sea levels will very likely climb half a meter to two meters (1.6 to 6.6 feet) by the end of this century, a range that is 90 centimeters (about three feet) higher than the latest United Nations projections.
What's happening?
A team of researchers from the Netherlands and Singapore say that under a high emissions scenario, the very likely range of sea-level rise would significantly surpass projections from the United Nations. Very likely means a 90% probability that this could happen.
"Under a low-emissions scenario, the fusion's very likely range of global mean sea-level rise is 0.3–1.0 m by 2100," according to the team's research article published in Advancing Earth and Space Sciences journal Earth's Future. Under a high-emissions scenario, the likely range is 0.5-1.9 meters.
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Definitely 💯 The scientists behind the article employed a new method known as the "fusion approach" to calculate sea level projections. The key points of this improved approach include fusing "the complementary strengths of alternative projections of sea-level rise" and using "a single probabilistic projection that quantifies a best estimate of scientific uncertainty."
Why are these new sea-level rise projections important?
The latest projection range points out how much uncertainty there is regarding sea-level rise. The researchers say that a high-end projection of nearly two meters especially highlights the need for the future plans of decision-makers to take precautions to protect critical infrastructure.
"This NTU research represents a significant breakthrough in sea-level science. By estimating the probability of the most extreme outcomes, it underscores the severe impacts of sea-level rise on coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems, emphasizing the urgent need to address the climate crisis," said director of Earth Observatory of Singapore at NTU and co-author of the study Professor Benjamin Horton, per Phys.org.
Researchers tied sea-level rise to the extinction of a plant local to the Florida Keys. Our overheating planet is warming the oceans and melting ice sheets fast enough that it could dramatically alter coastal states. Miami may be the canary in the coal mine when it comes to cities already dealing with the impacts of rising water levels. Rescuers were called into Florida's second-most populous city last summer during a rare flash flood emergency.
What's being done about rising sea levels?
According to the Environmental Protection Agency, adaptation strategies include building flood barriers to protect infrastructure and elevating or relocating facilities. The EPA also recommends protecting nearby wetlands, as they provide a buffer during storm surge events.
Drastically reducing the amount of heat-trapping gases released into Earth's atmosphere is the most effective way to combat sea-level rise. This will require embracing renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and geothermal energy. Modernizing our homes by upgrading to LED bulbs, signing up for community solar, and unplugging energy vampires are all ways we can help.
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