Experts issue warning on concerning phenomenon driving up US coffee prices: 'Isn't as it should be'

Coffee prices in the U.S. have hit an all-time high due to volatile weather that has affected the yield on crop harvests around the globe, CNBC reports.

What's happening?

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that ground roast coffee prices hit $8.41 per pound in July 2025. This is the highest recorded, and a 33% increase from July 2024.

Coffee prices have risen globally. In February 2025, global coffee prices hit a 50-year record high.

In the U.S., tariffs do play a part in the price of coffee, as the country imports 99% of all coffee consumed. Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia are the largest exporters of coffee in the world, and the U.S. has a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, raising the consumer price of coffee in the country.

However, weather volatility is the biggest driver of the increase in coffee prices. According to Reuters, "Adverse weather makes it harder to grow enough of the delicate beans to meet consumer demand." Just last year, coffee prices soared 70% after droughts in Brazil and Vietnam. This was followed by intense rain that also reduced the crop yield.

"Your standard season isn't as it should be," said Mike Hoffmann, professor emeritus at Cornell University. "Drought stresses the coffee plants, then you get way too much water, and it affects the quality and quantity of the bean, the berries."

While demand for coffee hasn't changed, the supply of it has, causing consumers to ration and for grocers and retailers to raise prices so that profits don't fall.

Why is the change in coffee prices important?

Three-fourths of Americans drink coffee each week. Globally, the coffee industry is worth $269 billion annually and is expected to grow to $369 billion by 2030, according to Grand View Research. So it is a vital industry across the globe.

But warmer global temperatures are threatening the entire industry. Warmer temperatures cause more erratic rainfall, increasing dry spells and leading to more intense rainfalls, which then impact the yield and quality of coffee bean crops.

"No one has a playbook for how to deal with climate change; farmers are just trying to stay one step ahead of it," said Raina Lang, who leads Conservation International's coffee program.

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This impacts grocery prices for consumers and the livelihood of farmers who rely on their annual coffee yield.

What's being done about coffee prices?

Analysts warn that the price of coffee will remain high, especially because extreme weather will continue to rise.

"The prices will continue to go up, in my mind," said Hoffman. "Climate change isn't going away. The severity of droughts, flooding, all of that will get worse. It's not just coffee — it's the whole food supply."

According to the Environmental Protection Agency, more resilient farming practices, planting cover crops, and reducing food waste are ways to help reduce the impact on coffee and other agricultural crops.

Researchers are developing new ways to grow coffee, which could help in the face of volatile weather. In Ethiopia, the Coffee for Conservation project trained over 4,000 farmers using sustainable methods that showed a successful yield. While in South Sudan, experts are considering using excelsa, a lesser-known coffee plant that is more resistant to warmer temperatures, as a means of solving the coffee crisis.

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