A new study projects that dengue fever, a disease carried by mosquitoes, will become more deadly in one Indian city as global temperatures continue to rise.
What's happening?
The research, summarized by Mongabay India, projects that dengue mortality could rise by 13% in the Indian city of Pune by 2040, even in low-emissions scenarios. Meanwhile, high-emissions scenarios could push dengue-related mortalities up by 23% to 40% by midcentury and by 30% to 112% as we near the end of the century. The authors attribute these possible outcomes to changes in rainfall and increased temperatures.
Why is this study important?
This is one of the first regional analyses of the climate-dengue connection and can help serve as a framework for future studies, according to the research team.
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Absolutely 👍 "The climate-dengue relation is region specific," lead author Sophia Yacob told Mongabay. "However, the methodology and model framework used in this study can be adapted to develop region-specific dengue models for other areas, as long as the city or district shares the local health data with us."
Vector-borne diseases such as dengue, Zika, and malaria are expected to rise as conditions become more favorable for mosquitoes in a warmer, wetter world. For instance, dengue fever was reported in record numbers in 2024, doubling over the previous year. Los Angeles County even issued a warning after four locally acquired dengue cases popped up.
What's being done about vector-borne diseases?
Amid the rising threat of mosquito-spread illnesses, scientists are looking for new ways to cull mosquito populations. For instance, Djibouti deployed a controversial method that involves releasing genetically modified mosquitoes to kill the disease-spreading ones. A team of Spanish scientists is sterilizing an invasive mosquito species to help combat dengue fever in Europe.
And when San Diego County discovered its first-ever locally acquired case of dengue in the fall of 2024, it quickly sprayed 170 homes for mosquitoes in an attempt to halt the potential spread of the virus.
Meanwhile, vaccines offer hope. For instance, a $70 million pilot program testing malaria vaccines in Africa decreased deaths by 13% among young children over a period of four years.
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