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Homeowner makes surprising discovery after opening utility company's flawed letter: 'Whatever ... algorithm they use to generate these is terrible'

"They'll usually be embarrassingly wrong."

A homeowner shared their utility company's stunning miscalculation, leading to a fascinating discussion about utility estimates on Reddit.

Photo Credit: iStock

A homeowner sparked conversation online after sharing their utility company's stunning miscalculation. Posting to the r/heatpumps subreddit, the original poster explained that their utility company had sent a notice that contained an estimate of the homeowner's winter electricity use. 

"We received our winter energy use flyer from our electric utility," the OP wrote. "This is an estimate of last winter's electricity use for heating our home." 

A homeowner shared their utility company's stunning miscalculation, leading to a fascinating discussion about utility estimates on Reddit.
Photo Credit: Reddit

"The utility's estimate is based on 'smart' meter data, detailed questions I answered about our home in a multi-page online form, and some algorithm," they continued.

The OP was shocked by how incorrect the utility company's estimate turned out to be. Given the homeowner's use of a high-tech, all-electric heat pump HVAC system, they were able to collect data that turned out to be much more accurate than the utility company's projections. 


According to the OP's own data, the actual amount of electricity used to heat their home was more than a third less than what the utility company said. "36% less than the utility guesstimate!" the OP exclaimed.

As the OP demonstrated, heat pump HVAC systems are a great way to slash the cost of heating your home. Check out The Cool Down's HVAC Explorer to learn more about heat pump HVACs, including useful information from reliable partners like Palmetto.

Users rushed to the comments to share their take on the OP's post. 

"My utility sends out the same thing," said one Redditor. "Whatever service/algorithm they use to generate these is terrible. I ignore it and look at my actual bills." 

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"I was coming to the comments to say the same," chimed in another. "My 'smart meter' gets everything wrong."

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"These utility calculations will never be correct (they'll usually be embarrassingly wrong)," concluded one commenter.

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