Nearly 6,000 top business leaders across four countries said AI barely changed their workforce or output over the past three years, according to a study from the National Bureau of Economic Research.
The research polled C-suite leaders and other senior decision-makers at companies in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, and Australia. About 70% said they used some form of artificial intelligence. But executives reported spending only about 1.5 hours a week with the technology, and 1 in 4 said they never touched it at work.
More than 80% of the participants said AI had zero effect on head count or per-worker output over the prior three years.
Those same leaders did expect big shifts. They predicted a 1.4% bump in productivity and forecast that head count would shrink 0.7% within three years. Workers told a separate survey the opposite, expecting a 0.5% rise in jobs. That mismatch between bosses and employees could shape how companies approach hiring and automation.
For everyday people, the disconnect between AI promises and reality carries real costs. AI demands a ton of electricity and water to cool data centers, which strains local grids and pushes utility bills higher.
AI tools can improve how solar and wind systems are managed, which helps balance energy supplies when conditions change. But the technology's thirst for resources is worth keeping an eye on, especially if your electric bill has been creeping up.
The slow payoff has economists drawing comparisons to the computer age of the 1980s.
"AI is everywhere except in the incoming macroeconomic data," Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok wrote in a blog post, as Fortune reported. "Today, you don't see AI in the employment data, productivity data, or inflation data."
Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu shared a measured take on the modest gains.
"I don't think we should belittle 0.5% in 10 years. That's better than zero," Acemoglu said, per Fortune. "But it's just disappointing relative to the promises that people in the industry and in tech journalism are making."
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