Florida's orange harvest is expected to be the smallest since 1930 because of major declines in healthy trees, affecting both farmers and consumers across the United States and Canada. 

What's happening?

According to Insurance Journal, which cited data from the Department of Agriculture, the state will have an estimated output of 12 million boxes of oranges this season — a 2% decline compared to last season. 

Since around 2000, Florida's orange groves have been shrinking because of a devastating, incurable bacterial infection called citrus greening disease, which kills tree roots and stunts growth. The disease causes fruits to be smaller, greener, and bitter, making them essentially unsellable. 

Rapid urban development has also led to the removal of many orange groves, and damage from intense hurricanes — for example, Ian, Nicole, and Milton — since 2022 has further destroyed trees. 

Insurance Journal reported that treatments have helped some trees recover, but that hasn't been enough to restore yields to their former levels. 

"It'll be a process to see the overall fruit count increase," Matt Joyner, CEO of Florida Citrus Mutual, told the news outlet. "That's going to take a number of years to get that broader number up."

Why are smaller orange harvests concerning?

Farmers depend on healthy crops for their livelihoods, but the financial strain from poor harvests has forced many out of business, according to WUSF. Remaining farmers are frustrated by the lack of breakthroughs in research to combat the disease as well as by other losses due to worsening storms and erratic weather. 

Food and Wine reported that hurricanes have been especially brutal in the Sunshine State since 2020, reflecting the impact of rising global temperatures on orange yields. 

"It can take up to three to five years for a damaged tree to recover from an extreme weather event (if it survives at all) and return to peak production," Marisa Zansler, the Florida Department of Citrus' director of economic and market research, told the magazine.

Smaller harvests usually mean more expensive grocery prices, though Insurance Journal reported that orange juice futures have dropped significantly as Brazil, the world's top orange exporter, expects a major boost in production. 

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Recent cold snaps and hurricanes have also resulted in millions of dollars in losses for vegetable, potato, melon, and strawberry farmers throughout Florida. 

What's being done to help orange trees recover?

According to WUSF, Florida lawmakers are working to pass a bill that would reduce the minimum sugar content required for orange juice, the end product for much of the state's harvests. Fresh oranges in grocery stores are more likely to come from California, and the USDA predicts a high output from the state this year, which should stabilize prices. 

Scientists have also been experimenting with genetically modified orange trees that can withstand or resist citrus greening. They say it could be the breakthrough the industry needs to stay afloat amid rising production costs and increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather. 

Keeping tabs on how the climate impacts orange harvests will help you know what to expect at the grocery store and shop smarter.

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