Experts issue warning as escalating crisis puts billions in assets at risk: 'It's a very scary prospect'

As if flooding isn't bad enough, researchers have developed an economic "risk map" of Norway — and what they found is unsettling. Billions in assets could be in harm's way.

What's happening?

A new study published in IOP Science mapped the locations of businesses and workplaces in Norway relative to coastal flood zones. Today, about 0.2% of the country's economic output falls within areas vulnerable to storm surges. But as sea levels rise and storms intensify, that share could climb to roughly 3.7% — putting an estimated NOK 12.6 billion (about $1.2 billion USD) in economic value at risk.

Storm surges — short-term spikes in sea level driven by powerful storms and high tides — can overwhelm ports, offices, factories, and transportation hubs. Events once considered rare could become far more frequent by the end of the century if pollution remains high.

"These types of extreme storm surges may become commonplace," said study co-author Francis I. Barré in an article on Phys.org. "It's a very scary prospect."

Flooding disrupts routines, shutting down workplaces and blocking transportation, costing people hours, wages, and sometimes even their jobs. 

Why is this important?

Coastal flooding carries real consequences for public safety and local economies. When businesses shut down, income disappears — and the effects ripple through entire communities. A closed road delays emergency services and deliveries. Displacement adds strain to housing systems already under pressure.

Rising seas are driven in part by the continued burning of oil, coal, and gas, which warms oceans and melts polar ice. As baseline water levels creep higher, even moderate storms can flood areas that once felt safe.

Extreme weather isn't just a local problem. In the UK, unusually wet conditions have left fields waterlogged, sharply cutting harvests. In the U.S., a string of billion-dollar weather disasters has put some small banks under serious financial strain, raising concerns that a few could even fail.

These examples show that extreme events don't just damage property — they ripple through the economy, affecting jobs, food, and access to critical services.

What's being done about it?

Researchers hope these maps give governments and businesses a heads-up. Fixing flood defenses, moving or protecting key infrastructure, and thinking ahead could make a big difference. Cutting back on oil, coal, and gas doesn't stop the next surge, but it does slow how fast the seas rise — and that matters for the storm still to come.

Closer to home, better planning matters — from where buildings go to how roads, ports, and utilities are protected before the next surge arrives. 

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