Expert debunks misleading graph going viral online: 'Outdated and flawed'

Former U.S. youth climate negotiator and TikToker Lia (@liaandtheworld) debunked a viral video from Lucy Biggers and The Free Press.

Lia broke down a graph created by John Christy and Roy Spencer, which is "widely touted in the climate disinformation space."

@liaandtheworld @The Free Press and @Lucy claim that climate models are wrong. The graph she shows is from John Christy and Roy Spencer, widely described as climate deniers. And the graph has been debunked and widely criticized by climate scientists for its dataset errors, cherry-picked region, and cherry-picked comparison of observed and modeled data. The truth is that climate models are actually extremely accurate, to a fraction of a degree. Bascally, the graph that The Free Press and Lucy Biggers are showing is a fossil fuel talking point pretending to be science - I guess in time for Halloween? #climateaction #takedown #thefreepress #climate #climatescience ♬ original sound - liaandtheworld

The graph compares 73 different climate models, all of which show rising global temperatures, with observations from satellite and radiosonde datasets. 

The datasets, in contrast, show fairly even temperatures. It suggests that scientists' climate predictions have been greatly exaggerated. Lia broke down the graph, explaining why it's so widely circulated — and incorrect.

"The graph uses outdated and flawed satellite data," she said, explaining that satellites don't measure heat directly. Instead, they measure "microwave radiation," a type of electromagnetic wave, which then has to be converted into temperature. 

Secondly, satellites drift. "So it's really important to correct for those drifts, those errors," Lia continued. "And when other scientists corrected those errors, their warming trend tripled."

A 2017 study published in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate backs up her claim. In fact, when the satellite data was corrected, five out of six datasets showed significant planetary warming. 

That's not all. Not only do Christy and Spencer use only one layer of the atmosphere (which is notoriously difficult to measure), they also use the warmest models and compare them to the coldest part of their data set, Lia said. This is to exaggerate the differences between their findings and those of most scientists.

"The truth is that climate models are actually extremely accurate, to a fraction of a degree," the caption reads. "The graph that The Free Press and Lucy Biggers are showing is a fossil fuel talking point pretending to be science."

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Lia brought up a good point. Oil and gas companies employ a myriad of tactics to downplay the planet's warming, one of which is science denial, in a bid to sell their products. This is partially why so much misinformation and disinformation spreads — companies have a vested interest in doing so.

And while Biggers may present herself as sincere or may even believe what she is being guided to produce, ultimately, her content is what it looks like when efforts by companies with such vested interests have reached enough sophistication to implant their disinformation throughout various media channels.

To separate fact from fiction, it helps to zoom out and remember that 99.9% of modern scientific papers across eight years concluded that humans have contributed to increasing global temperatures. And whether that's persuasive or not, it's hard to argue that unearthing billions of tons of fossilized material from millions of years ago and burning it into the air wouldn't have some additional effect on the planet or even air quality.

Commenters were grateful to Lia for debunking the graph so thoroughly.

"Thank you for fighting misinformation," one said.

Another exclaimed, "I love your videos! So informative!"

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