Scientists raise concern as new findings surface about eerie global phenomenon: '[We] can't afford to ignore'

The United Kingdom has not done enough to prepare for the impact of rising temperatures, and a study has shed light on the worst-case scenarios the government should plan for. 

According to The Guardian, the findings show exactly how the U.K. could be vulnerable to these risks. 

What's happening?

It's hard to predict the probability of the worst-case scenarios because you can't calculate uncertainty. University of Reading professor and study lead Nigel Armell compared the analysis his team did to what the Bank of England does for the financial system. 

The study, published in the journal Earth's Future, found multiple worst-case scenarios. One of them is where temperatures rise 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) and the sea level rises 2 meters.

Rising temperatures are also weakening the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, or the  AMOC. If this starts to collapse in 2030, the U.K. would actually see a 6-degree Celsius (10.8-degree Fahrenheit) temperature drop. It would disrupt agriculture and water supply, while also putting a strain on energy demand in winter. 

According to The Guardian, the scientists said, "A collapse of even one part of AMOC, the sub-polar gyre, would reduce U.K. temperatures by 2.5 degrees Celsius." 

If the Amazon sees a mass die-off, releasing polluting gases into the atmosphere, this could send global temperatures 4 degrees Celsius higher by 2100.

The Guardian noted, "This would result in extreme and prolonged heatwaves and droughts hitting the U.K. in summer." 

Cutting industry pollutants too quickly can also have an effect, including a rise in temperature of 0.75 degrees Celsius (1.35 degrees Fahrenheit), because these pollutants block the sun. 

Another worst-case scenario is extreme weather events. Temperatures could rise 6 degrees Celsius above the average, and rainfall could be triple the average. 

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While extreme weather events such as these were always going to happen, rising temperatures intensify them, as this worst-case scenario is showing. 

Why is planning for worst-case scenarios important?

While sea levels are already higher, if Greenland and Antarctica's glaciers melt even more quickly by 2100, this would flood cities in the U.K. Rising sea levels are already on planners' minds, unlike the other scenarios. 

Additionally, the global temperature rise of 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.34) has already seen many deaths during heatwaves. 

A 2021 House of Lords report indicated that the U.K. government was not giving sufficient attention to high-impact, low-likelihood worst-case scenarios. 

In addition, the Climate Change Committee, an independent advisory group, said that the U.K. needs to adapt to a 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) rise, while assessing risks in case a 4 degrees Celsius rise happens. The 2023 adaptation plans were described as being weak. 

What's being done about worst-case climate scenarios?

According to The Guardian, "The research was commissioned by the Met Office as part of the government's climate resilience programme." 

It's vital that this kind of research on climate issues continues to better understand how to prepare for these potentially dangerous scenarios. 

"The U.K. has been planning without the tools to test against worst-case scenarios," said Armell. "We've now given decision-makers what they need to prepare for climate outcomes they hope never happen, but can't afford to ignore."

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