An atmospheric river-fueled storm will soak southern California from late Thursday through this weekend, raising the risk of dangerous flash flooding. The threat of flooding and the possibility of mud and debris flows in burn-scarred areas have prompted officials to order evacuations for several communities.
"Gather loved ones, pets, documents, medications, and other important supplies before the storm arrives," warned an evacuation warning that is in effect from Thursday through 6 p.m. Sunday. "Those who need more time evacuating should consider leaving now. This includes those with access or functional needs, older adults, people with young children, and anyone with pets or livestock."
"We got an alert today, which is kind of good that they're prewarning all the locals and all the members of the community," Malibu resident Kyle Russell told KTLA News. "The mud is the biggest problem … That's when we get the big boulders falling down."
Meteorologists with the Los Angeles National Weather Service Office say the rain could fall at a rate of around a half inch to possibly an inch per hour. Harder hit sections of southern California could get more than four inches of rain over the coming days.
Over 29 million people on Friday across central and southern Los Angeles and northwest Washington face a marginal to slight risk, levels one and two out of four, respectively, for excessive rainfall capable of producing flash flooding, according to the Weather Prediction Service (WPC). The area of southern California at a slight risk on Thursday is located just northwest of Los Angeles.
On Saturday, the slight risk area expands and slips southward over southern California, centered near Los Angeles. The area outlined by the WPC for a slight risk stretches from Santa Maria southward through LA and San Diego and all the way to Tijuana. Over 32 million people across portions of California, Nevada, and Arizona will be at risk of experiencing flash flooding.
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The WPC's discussion for Saturday's excessive rainfall outlook doesn't rule out upgrading the risk area for southern California, but uncertainty with the timing of the onset of the rain and the difficulty of fine-tuning the forecast this far out means they will hold off raising the risk category for now.
The Los Angeles National Weather Service Office says potential impacts from this heavy rainfall event may include swiftwater rescues due to heavy flows in rivers and streams. Areas with burn scars will be particularly vulnerable to flash floods, debris flows, and rock/mud slides.
"Rainfall that would normally be absorbed will run off extremely quickly after a wildfire, as burned soil can be as water-repellent as pavement," according to the National Weather Service. "As a result, much less rainfall is required to produce a flash flood. A good rule of thumb is: "If you can look uphill from where you are and see a burnt-out area, you are at risk."
The factors contributing to the flooding risk, heavy precipitation, and the wildfires that have produced burn scars are being exacerbated by our warming world. Non-profit Climate Central's analysis of the rainfall rates in 126 U.S. cities found 88% of them have experienced an increase in their hourly rainfall intensity since 1970.
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Climate Central analyzed the historical trends in fire weather for 476 weather stations and found that "wildfire seasons are lengthening and intensifying, particularly in the western U.S."
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