Sea level rise, driven by glacial melt, has long been a major concern. Now, a study led by McGill University is helping to quantify just how devastating it may be. 

Published in August in the journal npj Urban Sustainability, the research indicates that over 100 million buildings across the Global South may be inundated by floodwaters if heat-trapping pollution isn't reduced — and soon.

What's happening?

Described in a release from McGill as the "first large-scale, building-by-building assessment," the study looked at the long-term effects of sea rise in Central and South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia.

With many structures in these regions densely packed and in low-lying areas, the researchers found that 3 million buildings could be flooded by a sea level rise of just 0.5 meters, or about 1.5 feet — an increase that's likely to unfold even if pollution rates are drastically cut. 

The vulnerable structures include homes, infrastructure, industrial sites, and cultural landmarks. "We were surprised at the large number of buildings at risk from relatively modest long-term sea level rise," study co-author and McGill professor Jeff Cardile said in a statement.

If these regions see 5 meters — or up to about 16.5 feet — of rise, over 100 million buildings could be at risk of inundation. It's an increase that "could be expected within a few hundred years if emissions don't end soon," according to the university.

Why is sea level rise concerning?

Ultimately, everyone will be hit by the consequences of sea level rise. As co-author Eric Galbraith explained, dependence on fuels, foods, and goods from ports exposed to rising waters means that the effects will be felt worldwide. 

"Disruption of this essential infrastructure could play havoc with our globally interconnected economy and food system," Galbraith said.

As with most disasters, however, marginalized communities are set to face disproportionate impacts. Indeed, low- and middle-income populations have already been experiencing the loss of safety, reliability, homes, livelihoods, and natural resources due to intensifying floods.

"Sea level rise is a slow, but unstoppable consequence of warming that is already impacting coastal populations and will continue for centuries," Natalya Gomez, co-author and Canada Research Chair in Ice Sheet-Sea Level Interactions, said. 

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But this "unstoppable consequence" could still be mitigated.

What's being done about sea level rise?

Governments, engineers, and architects are exploring adaptation strategies — from inland migration to living shorelines and floating buildings — to improve living conditions along coastlines vulnerable to rising seas. But the best way to curb this destructive flooding is to reduce global reliance on dirty energy sources.

Burning oil, coal, and gas generates the heat-trapping pollution that drives rising temperatures and melts glaciers and ice sheets. With meltwater increasing sea levels, international coalitions, individual governments, and concerned citizens will need to take on the challenges of the clean energy transition at every level.

Just as specific countries and states can make a difference even while waiting on globally coordinated efforts to take full flight, individuals can work at the community level to move away from dirty energy. Powering homes and neighborhoods with wind and solar power, shifting to electric cars and school buses, using public transit, and even carpooling can all add up.

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