Scotland's food and drink industry faces a growing, expensive threat that experts are calling "climateflation."
What's happening?
Simon McKeating, program manager at the Scotland Food and Drink Partnership, described in an article for The Scotsman how rising global temperatures and unstable weather are driving up grocery bills while putting some of Scotland's most iconic, heritage products — from scotch and seafood to summer strawberries — at risk.
Farmers are struggling with increasingly unpredictable conditions. Erratic rainfall, stronger storms, and warmer seas are disrupting agriculture and fisheries across Scotland.
Barley crops, essential to scotch production, can be flattened by one extreme weather event. Strawberry growers worry about shortened harvest windows and shifting flavor profiles. Beef and dairy producers are reporting declining grass yields for animal feed, while seafood exports remain vulnerable to global market fluctuations as warming waters alter marine ecosystems.
Practical costs, such as the increasing prices of refrigeration, irrigation, and crop protection, ultimately land on consumers in the form of higher food prices.
The James Hutton Institute warns that without innovation, even staple crops could suffer from ongoing volatility.
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Why is "climateflation" concerning?
For Scottish families, the consequences are already showing a serious strain on budgets. More expensive local produce risks pushing households toward cheaper, processed foods with poorer nutritional value. That means worsening health outcomes, especially for working-class communities.
"The political dimension cannot be ignored," wrote McKeating. "There's real danger that rising food prices could be misattributed to climate policies rather than climate change itself, potentially undermining public support for essential environmental measures."
What's being done about the threat to agriculture?
Researchers and producers are working on solutions. The James Hutton Institute is developing climate-resilient barley strains, while food innovators are testing Scottish-grown alternatives to vulnerable imports such as chocolate and palm oil, reported McKeating.
"Some producers are shortening supply chains to improve freshness and flexibility," he wrote. "However, these adaptations require significant investment and, crucially, consumer support to reach scale."
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On the policy side, experts argue for more strategic investment in resilient farming, stronger support for innovation, and a cultural shift toward valuing food not just by price, but also by provenance and sustainability.
McKeating closed with a well-known metaphor: "The parable of the boiling frog serves as an apt warning. Like the amphibian unaware of the slowly heating water, we risk failing to recognise these incremental changes until it's too late.
"Picture Scotland as that proverbial frog — whisky glass in one hand, strawberry in the other — oblivious to how both are being compromised by climate pressures."
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