The upcoming La Niña pattern, as forecast, will cool off portions of the Pacific Ocean, but our planet's temperature overall is expected to stay above average. A World Meteorological Organization report reminds us that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) isn't the only factor influencing our planet's climate.
The latest ENSO update from the WMO favors the development of a La Niña pattern that could start as early as sometime in September. ENSO acts like a gigantic seesaw in the Pacific Ocean that impacts the water as well as the air above it. It oscillates between an El Niño and a La Niña pattern, with neutral conditions occurring in between phases. During a La Niña pattern, the sea surface in the equatorial region of the eastern Pacific Ocean becomes significantly cooler than average.
While climate scientists acknowledge the cooling effect a La Niña pattern can have on the Pacific, natural climate events are being overwhelmed by our overheating planet, "which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns," warns the WMO report, per The Guardian.
La Niña usually flips the script on El Niño, bringing opposite weather patterns, particularly in tropical regions. "However, naturally occurring climate events such as La Niña and El Niño are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns," the WMO report points out.
The latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centers for Seasonal Prediction say there is a 55% chance of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean cooling to La Niña levels. Their projections give a 45% chance of current ENSO-neutral conditions continuing through meteorological fall (September-November). Looking ahead to October through December 2025, the probability of La Niña conditions rises to around 60%.
"While the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of global climate patterns, it is not the only factor shaping the Earth's climate," states the WMO report. In addition to ENSO updates, the WMO releases regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU) to give a broader climate outlook.
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These GSCU updates consider major climate patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole, while tracking global and regional temperature and rainfall anomalies for the coming season. "The latest Update says that for September to November, temperatures are expected to be above normal in much of the Northern hemisphere and large parts of the southern hemisphere," according to the WMO.
Earth had its third-warmest July on record, making the first half of this year the second warmest such period in the 175-year record, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). The July global climate report issued by the NCEI says there is a 99.9% chance that 2025 will be a top-five warm year.
Some recent top ten warmest years on record occurred during the La Niña phase of ENSO. La Niña patterns were present in both 2021 and 2022. Despite that, Earth had its 10th-warmest year on record in 2021 and its eighth-warmest year on record in 2022.
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