The odds are almost 50% that Louisiana's coast will be struck by a hurricane this year. The odds stay significant even in inland portions of the state, New Talk 96.5 KPEL reported.
What's happening?
U.S. coastal communities are bracing for what forecasters say will be an active Atlantic hurricane season. Between 1991 and 2020, the average number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes per year was 14.4, 7.2, and 3.2, respectively.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has placed the probability of an above-normal season at 60%. The NOAA is predicting 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.
Colorado State University's forecast concurs with the NOAA's. The university has issued seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts for over 40 years. CSU is forecasting 17 named storms, 14.4 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. CSU also maps out the chances of a hurricane impacting our country's coastline.
Louisiana's coast has a 46% probability of being impacted by a hurricane this year. "If you could run this exact season 100 times under identical conditions, coastal Louisiana would get hit by a hurricane about 46 of those times," New Talk 96.5 KPEL said.
Only Florida's coastline has a greater chance of being affected by a hurricane than Louisiana's. The threat from hurricanes isn't confined to just the coast. Inland portions of Louisiana have around a 35% chance of experiencing the effects of a hurricane this year.
Why is the probability of a hurricane in Louisiana important?
The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information's database for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters includes 27 tropical cyclone events from 1980 to 2024 that have incurred costs of $200-300 billion.
Damage from tropical storms and hurricanes makes up the vast majority of costs brought on by severe weather in Louisiana. Tropical cyclones accounted for 86% of the total costs from billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in the state over 35 years.
Over the past 20 years, hurricanes have been the fifth leading weather-related cause of death in the U.S., according to National Weather Service statistics. NOAA cited warmer-than-average ocean temperatures as a factor that influenced this year's above-average hurricane season forecast.
Our warming world is supercharging all types of storms, including hurricanes. While there have always been extreme weather events, the human-induced climate crisis makes them more frequent and powerful. Nonprofit Climate Central's analysis of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season found that all eleven hurricanes that formed last year had stronger winds as a result of our overheating planet.
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Move somewhere else 🌎 This year marks the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, the third-deadliest hurricane in U.S. history, which struck New Orleans on Aug. 29, 2005. Nearly 80% of the city was flooded as several of the city's levees were breached. It was the costliest hurricane in U.S. history.
Supercharged extreme weather events can cause expensive damage to homes and businesses, increase insurance premiums, and lead to injuries or even death.
How are people preparing for hurricanes?
The Federal Emergency Management Agency has a guide on how to best prepare for hurricanes. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also offers advice on how to get ready for any future tropical cyclone that might strike.
Pairing solar panels with battery storage can strengthen your home's defenses against severe weather. Boston-based EnergySage can help you easily compare vetted installers and cut installation costs by as much as $10,000.
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