Myriad warnings affecting several million people have been issued by the National Weather Service as Hurricane Erin makes its closest approach to the United States late Wednesday into early Thursday.
While the worst conditions should remain well offshore, as the storm sweeps east of the North Carolina coast late today into early tomorrow, numerous weather alerts are posted from Florida's beaches all the way to the coasts of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. The National Hurricane Center is strongly cautioning beachgoers "against swimming at most U.S. East Coast beaches due to life-threatening surf and rip currents."
The first hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season is churning up enormous waves off the East Coast on Wednesday. Erin could send seas rising to as high as 18 to 26 feet across the coastal waters of North Carolina, according to a tropical storm warning issued for the state's coastline.
Hurricane Erin's power peaked at Category 5 strength over the weekend, but had diminished to a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday morning. Erin was still packing powerful maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, according to Wednesday's midday advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm was located around 365 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and moving to the north at 13 mph.
Tropical storm force wind gusts of 39 mph or stronger are expected along the coast of North Carolina as Erin makes its closest pass to the state's coast. A tidal storm surge was already battering homes along North Carolina's Outer Banks on Tuesday. As the storm draws closer, ocean water will move even further inland along the barrier islands.
A storm surge warning issued for the Outer Banks from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, lists potential impacts including "damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes" and "many large tree limbs broken off." The surge could reach as high as 2 to 4 feet. The warning also notes that some roads could become impassable due to storm debris.
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"There is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline," the NHC advisory also said.
Erin's impacts will be far-reaching. Nearly 10 million people from North Carolina to New York are under a coastal flood watch. The National Weather Service has also issued rip current statements for several states that warn people should stay out of the water because of high rip current risk extending all the way into the Northeast.
"Life-threatening rip currents are likely for all people entering the surf zone," according to a coastal hazard message from the National Weather Service office in New York City. "Anyone visiting the beaches should stay out of the surf. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water."
People living along the East Coast can't let their guard down even after Erin weakens and moves well out to sea by late Friday. The NHC is monitoring two disturbances in the Atlantic for further development. The closest, located near the Leeward Islands in the tropical Atlantic, has a 60% chance of strengthening to a tropical cyclone in the next seven days. The second, a tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic, has a 40% chance of cyclone formation over the next week.
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No way 😨 NOAA's revised Atlantic hurricane season forecast noted warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures as one of the contributing factors behind what should be an active finish to the season. The new forecast was issued in early August and is calling for 13-18 named storms, 5 to 9 of which are expected to strengthen to hurricane status, and two to five are forecast to be major hurricanes.
A study from scientists with the nonprofit Climate Central concluded that our warming world has supercharged several Atlantic hurricanes over the past six years. Researchers concluded that most of the Atlantic Hurricanes that formed from 2019 to 2023 and every hurricane in 2024 were intensified by higher-than-normal temperatures on our overheating planet, which also includes higher ocean temperatures where hurricanes form.
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