As temperatures rise across the United States, many Americans may be less prepared for dangerous heat than they think. A new study suggest that U.S. residents' concerns and worries about extreme heat don't align with their expected risk, the Yale Program of Climate Change Communication reported.
The findings come from a newly published article in the journal Nature Communications titled "Experience-driven perceptions misalign with assessed heat risk in the United States."
Drawing on nationally representative survey data from 2018 to 2022, the authors estimated county- and state-level concern about extreme heat.
They then compared those estimates with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Heat and Health Index. Their interactive map has created a county-by-county picture of where public concern lines up with the danger.
The misalignment is widespread.
In most counties, expert-assessed heat danger exceeded what residents perceived. There are especially large gaps in the Pacific Northwest, Appalachia, parts of Michigan, and many rural communities.
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The authors found that only about 4% of counties had most residents at least moderately worried about extreme heat.
The study also identified a relatively small set of counties, mostly in Texas and California, where public concern more closely matches heat risk assessments from experts.
Counties with older populations and higher poverty rates were more likely to underestimate local heat danger. Places with higher levels of education tended to track expert assessments more closely.
That means many of the biggest danger zones are also places where health vulnerabilities are already high. The map shows how lived experience can lag behind changing conditions, especially as rising temperatures push risks beyond what many residents have historically known.
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Extreme heat kills more people than any other weather-related hazard in the United States. But preparation and adaptation can prevent heat-related illnesses and deaths. Low public awareness is a communication and public health issue.
To help address that gap, the study introduces what researchers call the Risk Analysis–Perception, or RAP, framework. This tool can identify counties where heat risk is high but concern is low. It could help public agencies, health officials, and local leaders target outreach and preparedness efforts more effectively.
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