The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that could become the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. 

What's happening?

Next up on the list is Dexter, though it appears unlikely the name will be given to the system moving west along the Gulf Coast. The chance of a hurricane forming has dropped from 40% to 30%, with the latest NHC analysis projecting significant rain from the west coast of Florida to the easternmost coast of Texas.

"Outside of locally higher winds and seas in the strong convection, fresh winds and moderate seas are present with this low," NHC meteorologists wrote Thursday afternoon. "There is a low chance of this system developing into a tropical depression later today or tonight before it moves westward into Louisiana."

The biggest threat will be torrential rainfall. As the system slowly moved across Northern Florida on its way to the Gulf, it dumped lots of precipitation on the Sunshine State. High 24-hour rainfall amounts included 9.1 inches in Plant City, 4.9 in Ocala and Port Orange, and 4.7 in New Smyrna Beach. The Weather Prediction Center said the greatest risk (at least 40%) of rainfall leading to flash flooding was for a large area around Lafayette, Louisiana, with a slight risk (at least 15%) stretching from the Florida Panhandle into Texas.

Why is a disturbance in the Gulf important?

Of the four named tropical storms this year, two have had direct impacts on the United States. Tropical Storm Chantal struck South Carolina in early July, dumping as much as 6 inches of rain in the Palmetto State and 9-12 in North Carolina, where Gov. Josh Stein declared a state of emergency.

A couple of days prior, the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry contributed to catastrophic flooding in Kerr County, Texas, and the wider Hill Country. The death toll has climbed to at least 134 people, with more than 160 still missing. Search operations continued nearly two weeks later, with 101 people still missing.

Hurricane season began June 1 and stretches to Nov. 30. The nonprofit Climate Central found that the warming world intensified the majority of Atlantic hurricanes from 2019 to 2023 and supercharged every Atlantic hurricane in 2024.

What's being done about extreme weather events?

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