A study has found that investing in disaster monitoring could yield staggering returns.
According to Phys.org, researchers from the Toulouse School of Economics found that keeping watch on desert locusts — an especially destructive crop pest — can deliver a 680-fold return.
The team analyzed three decades of data on desert locust surveillance, one of the longest-running warning systems of its kind across Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia.
The study, published in the journal National Bureau of Economic Research, tackled a difficult question: How do you measure the value of a warning system when success means disaster never fully happens?
The researchers looked at times when monitoring broke down. For example, conflict can keep survey teams out of breeding areas, creating gaps just when rain produces good conditions for locust growth.
Machine-learning tools were then applied to map where swarms emerged and how they moved far beyond those breeding zones.
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"When locust swarms develop, they destroy the crops and pastureland in their path — consuming as much food each day as about 625,000 people," study co-author Eyal Frank said.
The study also shows how local surveillance failures can quickly become regional food crises.
Locust swarms are not just an agricultural issue — they are also a public health issue. When food becomes scarce, prenatal exposure to locust outbreaks raises the odds of stunted growth by 18%, according to the report. Those children also face a higher risk of dying before the age of 5.
A 2019 outbreak showed how quickly the problem can escalate. Researchers linked gaps in monitoring during Yemen's civil war to swarms that crossed borders and ruined crops. The study estimated that roughly 445,000 extra children had stunted growth because monitoring failed, with 83% living outside Yemen in neighboring countries.
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The study noted that for every $1 put into surveillance, as much as $680 can be reaped through better childhood nutrition alone before any additional farm-related gains are counted.
Relatively modest investments in coordination, data, and field monitoring can help protect harvests, stabilize communities, and give children a healthier start.
Study co-author Anouch Missirian said one challenge is that successful monitoring often leaves "little to no damage" to report, making its benefits easy to overlook.
Frank called locusts "a severe threat to food security across Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia," per Phys.org.
Preventive funding may seem expensive up front, but allowing early warning systems to fail can end up costing far more — both in crops and public health.
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