A hurricane hunter aircraft is being sent into the Pacific Ocean to gather data that will help forecasters assess the severity of atmospheric river-fueled storms that will impact the West this week. The Pacific Northwest will be pounded especially hard with up to 10 inches of rain possible in some spots.
The Weather Prediction Center's forecast discussion on Monday helped set the meteorological scene for the northwest corner of the country.
"The forecast remains on track for a prolonged atmospheric river to usher in several days of heavy rainfall over the Pacific Northwest," noted the WPC short-range public discussion. "Beginning this morning, rainfall coverage and intensity is expected to increase across coastal Washington and Oregon as a potent slug of sub-tropical moisture begins to flow inland along a strong Pacific jet."
"If you look at things collectively out there, there are going to be multiple days of heavy rain – it is going to be a strong atmospheric river event," Weather Prediction Center meteorologist Andrew Orrison told Bloomberg. "That is going to be the top story, certainly on the rainfall front."
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Water Center (NWC) has issued a series of key messages regarding the potential flooding impacts from an active, unsettled weather pattern expected this week.
"Considerable urban, small stream, and river flooding is expected beginning late Monday night and continuing through the end of this week," warned the NWC about the impacts expected for the Cascade Foothills and Puget Sound region. "Moderate to isolated major river flooding is expected."
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The NWC will also be monitoring the rest of western Washington and parts of northern Oregon for possible widespread urban and river flooding, as well as the potential for landslides along the Cascade Foothills. More than nine million people across portions of at least four western states are under flood watches.
Flood alerts extend as far east as northern Idaho and western Montana. "Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks," read a flood watch issued by the Missoula, Montana National Weather Service Office. "People, structures, and roads located below steep slopes, in canyons, and near the mouths of canyons may be at risk from landslides."
NOAA is deploying its hurricane hunter aircraft into the storm today in an attempt to gather valuable data to determine just how serious this multi-day extreme atmospheric river (AR) weather event will be. Scripps Institution of Oceanography's Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes is forecasting what they term "AR 4" level impacts this week along the West Coast.
The AR scale ranges from AR1, or weak, to AR5, exceptional, and is based on the intensity and duration of the event. The impacts from an extreme AR 4 category are described as "mostly hazardous" and include a "high risk of significant flooding, landslides, infrastructure damage, and major travel disruptions."
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Always 😷 Think of atmospheric rivers as narrow highways of moisture overhead, channeling most of the water vapor that escapes the tropics.
"An average atmospheric river is about 1,200 miles long, 300 miles wide, and nearly two miles deep," explained researchers with non-profit Climate Central. "Strong ones can move moisture at 15 times the discharge rate of the Mississippi River."
Our overheating planet is supercharging atmospheric river events. "As human-caused climate change continues to warm the planet, the number of days that the western U.S. will experience atmospheric rivers is projected to increase," according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. "Atmospheric rivers are also expected to be bigger and more hazardous on average."
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