Western Europe's brutal summer heat was more than miserable — it was deadly — and the World Health Organization warned that it's only going to get hotter.
Here's what to know
Early estimates found that at least 35,000 excess deaths were linked to soaring temperatures, and that toll covered only the first four heat waves across about half the continent. According to Grist, the heat across Western Europe lowered river levels, dried out the ground, made vegetation easier to burn, and strained hospitals and emergency services.
WHO warned that the devastation was only a "dress rehearsal," as climate change and El Niño set the stage for even warmer summers.
Heat-trapping pollution, driven mainly by human activity, continues to accumulate in Earth's atmosphere. Grist reported that El Niño — a recurring climate pattern that warms the planet every two to seven years — could become the strongest in a millennium.
At the same time, the world is nearing a breach of the Paris climate agreement's stricter target of limiting warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels. A new United Nations report said that line is certain to be crossed.
Kristie Ebi, a lead author of the U.N. report and a professor of global health at the University of Washington, said, "When 1.5 was decided, there was an assumption that 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial [temperatures] would be relatively safe." She added, "And I would say, today, that Europe does not think 1.4 degrees is relatively safe. For most of the U.S., it does not feel like 1.4 is relatively safe."
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More background
The U.N. report says studies have suggested dangerous conditions can begin at around 79 degrees Fahrenheit (26 degrees Celsius) under humid conditions. It also says high temperatures can place deadly stress on the heart, lungs, and kidneys.
The U.N. report also says worse heat, drought, fire, sea level rise, and glacier loss are ahead.
Ebi said communities can be forced to learn the devastating effects of extreme heat in real time, as in Portland, Oregon, when temperatures hit 116 degrees Fahrenheit during the heat dome in June 2021. Under those conditions, roads buckled, bridges warped, streetcar power cables melted, and the light rail's overhead copper wires expanded and sagged.
"There really is nowhere that is terribly well adapted to these very extreme events," Ebi said. "The temperatures were just so high, much higher than the heat wave early warning systems were designed to manage."
What's being done?
Grist reported that Europe responded after a 2003 heat wave killed 70,000 people by expanding early warning systems, opening cooling centers, and helping hospitals prepare.
France took especially aggressive steps, including requiring air-conditioned rooms in nursing homes, having health workers check on older and frail residents, and creating more green space in cities to help reduce urban heat.
Christopher Callahan, a climate scientist at Indiana University who studies heat, health, and economics, said, "A given heat wave is now actually much less deadly in France than it was before."
Even so, the U.N. report said wealthy countries still are not adapting at the needed pace. In fact, Callahan said one of his studies found that current adaptation trends would prevent only about 1 in 10 expected heat deaths.
Ebi believes communities should "stress test" possible disaster scenarios, much like banks and militaries imagine worst-case scenarios, to see how they would play out and prepare better.
Callahan said, "There are a million different ways in which we can imagine making our society resilient to this kind of threat, and we just aren't there yet."
Where can I learn more?
Europe's heat emergency is lasting longer and spilling well beyond the hospital system. Officials warn that even current warming is already too dangerous. Here are some more stories on record temperatures that overwhelm public health systems, upend daily life, and reveal how unprepared even wealthy countries still are.
• Across Europe, extremes are obliterating records and closing schools as health threats rise.
• Across Europe, heat kills more Europeans than car crashes.
• In the UK and France, freak May heat shattered records and sparked public warnings.
• Across Western Europe, a deadly heat dome kills and foreshadows harsher summers worldwide.
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