With hurricane season nearing, Google's newest artificial intelligence-powered model could give state officials a leg up in predicting the path of tropical storms.
The tech giant announced the launch of Weather Lab this month, an experimental model that aims to combine historical and real-time data to anticipate the path of cyclones. According to the company's research announcement, "this model can predict a cyclone's formation, track, intensity, size, and shape — generating 50 possible scenarios, up to 15 days ahead."
As Spectrum News 13 in Florida reported, this development represents a potentially significant upgrade over existing physics-based methods for predicting hurricanes. Essentially, scientists use current conditions and a set of equations to model the storm's potential paths. The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration can forecast up to seven days ahead.
With rising ocean temperatures caused by human activity, hurricanes and other extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe. This isn't Google's first venture in the space; a project to track wildfires was launched in 2024. Any tool that aids in disaster preparation could save hundreds, if not thousands, of lives in the long run.
Research has shown that AI is remarkably effective at predicting standard weather patterns. Pedram Hassanzadeh, a professor at the University of Chicago and co-author of a May study on AI's efficacy, said: "AI weather models are one of the biggest achievements in AI in science."
However, the study found that because it relies on a limited data set, AI isn't as well-equipped to deal with so-called black or grey swan events, such as a once-in-a-century storm like Hurricane Harvey. Ultimately, AI is still an emerging technology with its own environmental issues, but it is continually improving. Just as technology can improve weather predictions, it can also be used to optimize household energy use.
It remains to be seen if Google's bold claims will materialize, but the data gathered from the latest hurricane season will put it in good standing for future seasons. Indeed, Dr. Kate Musgrave, a leading research scientist in tropical cyclones, said in Google's press release: "We're looking forward to confirming those results from real-time forecasts during the 2025 hurricane season."
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