Relatively cooler ocean waters, compared to last year, kept the first month of the Atlantic hurricane season quiet. There are growing indications that we might not be so lucky in July.
What's happening?
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season saw three named storms develop during the month of June. Two never strengthened beyond tropical storm status, but one went on to become a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 165 miles per hour at its peak intensity.
Hurricane Beryl formed in late June last year and secured its place in history by rapidly intensifying, with its winds surging by 95 mph in less than 48 hours. It became the earliest major hurricane ever recorded east of the Lesser Antilles in June and set records as the earliest Category 4 and Category 5 storm.
Beryl made landfall and eventually struck the southeast coast of Texas on July 8 last year, packing maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and gusts to near 90 mph. The storm knocked out power to nearly 3 million people in and around Houston.
The record-setting wasn't over for Beryl. By the end of that day, the National Weather Service had issued 110 tornado warnings, marking the largest number ever for one July day in the U.S. in nearly four decades of records.
This past June was relatively quiet compared to the same time last year. Tropical Storm Andrea was a short-lived storm that formed in the central Atlantic on June 24 and quickly dissipated the following day. Tropical Storm Barry formed four days later in the Bay of Campeche but dissipated a day later after making landfall south of Tampico, Mexico.
"June is normally a quiet month," Colorado State University senior research scientist Phil Klotzbach told the Boston Globe. "We've had above-average wind shear, and with cooler sea surface temperatures compared to this time last year."
A quiet June doesn't mean we can let our guard down. The Atlantic hurricane season historically revs up a bit in July. The month averages around 1.6 named storms, with the first major hurricane usually forming in mid-July, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Why is July's forecast of tropical cyclones important?
Computer models are hinting at rising sea surface temperatures in the typical source regions for July tropical cyclones, including the Gulf and the western Atlantic. Colorado State University senior research scientist Phil Klotzbach's chart of July Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) from 1950 through 2024 shows it has been increasing during the period. ACE is a metric that meteorologists employ to quantify the duration and intensity of tropical cyclone activity over a given period. This ACE uptick translates into stronger and longer-lasting July storms.
A study by Climate Central revealed that climate change increased the intensity of most Atlantic hurricanes from 2019 through 2023. The study also showed that our warming world increased the intensity of every storm in 2024.
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Definitely 👍 The buildup of heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere is acting like steroids for the planet's weather, supercharging several types of storms, including hurricanes. While extreme weather isn't new, our overheating planet is making it more frequent and powerful. Nonprofit Climate Central's analysis of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season found that all 11 hurricanes that formed last year intensified as a result of our overheating planet.
What's being done about the impact of our overheating planet on tropical cyclones?
Accelerating the transition from dirty energy to renewable energy sources can help cool our planet and mitigate the impacts of our warming world on extreme weather. The prospects of harnessing energy from Earth's crust got a boost recently as a Japanese manufacturing company announced it will provide equipment for a $500 million geothermal project in Indonesia.
As individuals, we can collectively make a difference. Spreading the word about critical climate issues through discussions with friends and family, and supporting climate-related organizations that are fighting for the future of our planet, are ways to help.
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