A financial analyst has sounded alarm bells about Tesla's "shocking" sales slump as projections for both sales and stock prices continued to nosedive.
According to a report in March from EV, Vijay Rakesh, an analyst for financial services company Mizuho, has lowered projections on the number of delivered cars in the embattled carmaker's forecast by 500,000, from 2.3 million to 1.8 million in 2025.
The company also cut its stock price target projection on Tesla from $515 to $430, which still gave it an "outperform" rating on the year but would represent a 72% jump from its closing price March 14, the Friday before the projection, per EV.
"We believe TSLA's sales woes are the result of a deterioration in geopolitics, brand perception (US/EU), share loss due to stronger competition (China), and softer-than-expected demand for the Model Y refresh," Rakesh wrote, per EV.
Tesla has borne the brunt of consumer frustration with CEO Elon Musk's behavior over recent months. Musk has joined the Trump administration as the de facto head of the Department of Government Efficiency, an initiative that has resulted in widespread layoffs and budget cuts to social services and government programs.
Musk poured millions of dollars into the presidential election and statewide elections, and his political activities in the United States and elsewhere have drawn the ire of people around the world.
The impact of those decisions is hurting Tesla's sales numbers as consumers around the globe opt to not buy cars from the company.
Germany in particular — where the EV market grew by about 31% since the same time last year, per Rakesh's note — has been hit hard after Musk openly supported the "suspected extremist organization" AfD party, whose leader in the state of Thuringia has been fined multiple times by a German court after using an outlawed Nazi slogan, according to the Anti-Defamation League.
Dani Dayan, chair of World Holocaust Remembrance Center Yad Vashem — which was established to ensure "the six million Jews murdered by the German Nazis and their collaborators" are remembered, including through education and commemoration — also rebuked Musk on X, formerly Twitter, after Musk encouraged attendees of the AfD rally to not focus on the past.
Despite the growth of the EV market, Tesla's February sales in Germany were estimated to have dropped by 76%, according to Rakesh, who didn't delve into how much Musk's political statements may have impacted that figure.
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Definitely 👍 If anything, initial signs indicate that Rakesh and Mizuho's projections may be too kind, as the company reported a massive 13% global dip in sales in the first quarter of 2025, its weakest position in three years.
The company hopes that sales will revive with the releases of its Model Y SUV — a low-cost version in China is expected to be about 20% cheaper to build than the current version of the car, according to Reuters.
However, that may not be enough to revive the flagging brand around the globe, even as EV sales continue to show strong growth. The vehicles are coveted for their savings on fuel and maintenance as well as status as more eco-friendly given their lack of tailpipe pollution.
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