Europe's tourism rebound is bringing in crowds. And according to Transport & Environment, it could also push rents even higher for residents already struggling to stay housed.
In several of Europe's most tourism-reliant economies, additional air travel is projected to lift average rents by up to €250 (about $285) annually over the next five years. The heaviest burden will fall on lower earners.
What's happening?
Research by the New Economics Foundation for T&E points to air tourism growth as a driver of rent increases in five large European tourism markets from 2026 to 2031, according to Transport & Environment.
To separate that effect from tourism's broader influence on housing, the analysis specifically estimated aviation's contribution.
Among the countries studied, Ireland has the largest projected annual increase in euro terms, at €250 (about $285).
By percentage change, the sharpest rises are expected in Greece, Portugal, and Spain, where yearly rents are forecast to climb by about €160 (about $182) to €220 (about $251).
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Places that have become flashpoints for anti-tourism protests — including the Balearic Islands, Crete, and Madeira — are also among the regions with the highest ratios of foreign visitors to residents. Most of those travelers arrive by plane.
Why does it matter?
When pay growth lags behind housing costs, even relatively small rent gains can hit hard. The report warns that lower-income tenants are especially vulnerable because they have less room to absorb higher housing bills.
Worker pay patterns in major tourism destinations also undercut the idea that more flights and more visitors automatically deliver broad local gains.
In countries such as Italy, Spain, and France, which receive especially large numbers of air tourists, tourism workers have recorded some of the weakest real-wage performance in the analysis. In the meantime, larger companies have been taking an increasing share of accommodation spending.
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The findings also point to environmental consequences. Aviation accounts for an estimated 52% of tourism's direct pollution worldwide, and air pollution from tourist flights into Europe are expected to grow by over 60% from 2016 to 2030.
What's being done?
Based on those findings, the authors say aviation policy should not ignore housing impacts, particularly in places already strained by heavy visitor numbers. In their view, governments should no longer assume that airport growth and rising tourism are inherently beneficial.
For the EU's forthcoming Sustainable Tourism Strategy, T&E wants officials to examine the housing impact of international air arrivals, halt airport expansion, and reduce arrivals in destinations that are already overcrowded.
It is also calling for a rethink of tourism and transport policy that shifts more travel to lower-carbon options like rail and raises wages for tourism workers.
Even so, airport investment is moving ahead in several countries.
Spain has earmarked €12.9 billion (about $14.7 billion) for work that includes Barcelona and Madrid.
Athens is pursuing a €1.3 billion (about $1.4 billion) expansion. Lisbon continues to expand its terminal despite warnings that such projects could worsen housing pressure, pollution, and inequality rather than improve residents' quality of life.
Head of Economic Policy at the New Economics Foundation, Dr. Alex Chapman, said, "Jobs have been created, but the low wages they offer are poor compensation for rising housing costs, stretched infrastructure and increasing pollution."
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