As temperatures begin to fall, households in Great Britain face higher energy bills, a shift expected to erase the benefit many families counted on from a planned cut to VAT on electricity.
Coming on top of wider cost-of-living pressures, the increase could make the winter months even harder for many households.
Here's what to know
If Cornwall Insight's forecast proves correct, October will bring the highest quarterly energy cap since July 2023, with the limit rising about 4% and the typical annual dual-fuel bill reaching £1,729 (~$2,357 USD).
Higher gas costs are driving the projected increase, with prices affected in part by the war in the Middle East and by heavier reliance on gas-fired power plants during European heatwaves.
Analysts say that would more than cancel out Prime Minister Andy Burnham's planned VAT cut on household electricity bills, which was expected to save households about £45 (~$61 USD) a year.
Ofgem is due to set the cap next Wednesday. For households paying by direct debit, Cornwall Insight estimates electricity will cost 26.57p per kilowatt hour, up from 26.11p, while gas will rise to 7.90p from 7.33p.
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More background
Craig Lowrey, a principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, said, "It is a stark reminder that our energy bills remain tied to events thousands of miles away."
Coal and natural gas power plants contribute to air and water pollution linked to asthma, heart disease, cancer, and premature death, while also keeping energy costs elevated for households that rely on these fuels instead of more abundant energy sources such as sunlight and wind.
Industry lobbying can also slow the expansion of cleaner, cheaper energy solutions that would better protect families from volatile fuel markets.
There may be more increases ahead. Cornwall forecasts another rise in January if current market prices hold, and Jess Ralston of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit said wholesale gas prices have reached "a near four-year high."
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As winter heating demand climbs, that could put additional pressure on households. Ralston also said Britain still trails its European neighbors in reducing gas use for home heating, even as heat pump sales increase.
What can be done?
To ease the strain, the government points to several steps: a VAT cut on energy bills, the £150 (~$204 USD) warm home discount for about 6 million households this winter, and its warm homes plan.
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Lowrey warned, "Rising energy bills aren't welcome at the best of times, but with winter approaching, this latest hike will hit struggling households especially hard."
He added, "As long as we're exposed to global markets, the risk of these price shocks will remain."
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