The fall harvest could leave American farmers in a tough financial spot, because higher crop prices do not offset the high costs of production and getting crops to market.
When production costs remain high, the effects can ripple through food supply chains, making it harder to keep grocery prices stable for families, according to Brownfield Ag News.
Here's what to know
Fuel and fertilizer remain two of the biggest worries for growers.
John Newton, the American Farm Bureau's vice president for public policy and economic analysis, told Brownfield that both costs continue to weigh heavily on farmers.
Newton warned that diesel prices remain especially worrisome because they affect nearly every part of the job, from fieldwork to transporting crops.
"Going into this fall when prices are still elevated, they're above where they were before the Strait of Hormuz closure," he explained.
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"And then diesel prices, they spiked [and] hit a record $5.41 a gallon in Illinois in early May. They cooled off a little bit in July, but they've started to move back higher again."
Improving commodity markets have not solved the profit problem for farmers.
If diesel, fertilizer, seed, machinery, labor, and borrowing expenses all stay elevated, producers can still see weak margins even when crop prices rise.
Farm profitability helps determine whether food production stays resilient, affordable, and steady from season to season.
More background
Fuel and fertilizer are foundational costs in modern agriculture.
Diesel powers tractors, combines, irrigation systems, and transportation, while fertilizer plays a central role in maintaining crop yields. When both rise at the same time, the financial squeeze can be immediate.
Newton said the strain is not limited to those two categories.
He pointed to rising costs across the farm budget, including labor, machinery, land, cash rents, taxes, interest rates, seed, and fertilizer.
Higher interest rates are especially significant because they raise the cost of financing equipment and covering operating expenses before harvest income arrives.
So a farmer may bring in a better price for crops than in past seasons and still be left with less profit after bills are paid. In practical terms, that can leave less room to invest in upgrades, hire workers, or absorb future shocks.
Persistent cost pressure can affect rural communities, food processors, and shoppers trying to manage household budgets.
What's being done?
The Farm Bureau is pushing for more federal support as one way to ease the pressure.
Newton told Brownfield that the group supports congressional efforts to provide another round of economic assistance for farmers, which can help when essential operating costs rise faster than farm income.
Technologies that allow farmers to use fuel and fertilizer more efficiently could improve conditions for both growers and consumers.
Equipment upgrades, more targeted application tools, and other efficiency measures can reduce waste, lower operating costs, and support steadier food production.
Consumers also have a role to play in protecting their own budgets when farm and food costs are volatile.
Building more flexibility into meal planning — including exploring plant-based food options that can stretch grocery dollars — can help households navigate price swings.
That urgency is part of why farm groups are calling for help, as Newton noted.
"I mean everything is more expensive today than what it was a few years ago. Machinery is more expensive, land is more expensive, cash rents are more expensive, labor's more expensive, taxes, interest rates, seed costs, fertilizer costs," he said.
"I can't find a single line-item that's more affordable today than what it was a few years ago."
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