Researchers have identified a weather phenomenon that signals the coming of destructive rainfall.
The Moist Absolute Unstable Layer, or MAUL, is a section of the atmosphere that rises rapidly due to a high relative temperature. The study compared the thickness of this layer, how full of water it was, and the total rainfall it produced during flash floods in the United Arab Emirates and Oman in 2024. Researchers were able to see clear signals that forecasters could use to detect severe downpours well before they happen.
Newcastle University researchers aren't the only ones trying to tackle this challenge. Scientists in South Korea have also been working hard to develop fast, accurate flash flood forecasts.
Flash flooding has become a serious threat worldwide. Recent instances in Pakistan, New Mexico, and Spain are just some examples of the damage that can be done. Atmospheric pollution is serving to exacerbate this and other destructive weather patterns. These incur steep costs on homeowners and are accelerating a serious insurance crisis.
There are a number of landscaping options available to help prepare for flooding. Planting trees, for instance, can help surface water infiltrate soil thanks to deep root systems, for example. Rain gardens also funnel water into the soil quickly.
This is much better than letting this water go through storm sewers, as floodwaters wash contaminants from roads along with them. This pollution then goes out to the aquatic ecosystems nearby.
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Improved forecasting science can help to adapt and prepare for these disasters, but attacking the root cause will require a dramatic reduction in pollution. Researchers were keen to get their forecast modeling put into action.
"Our group is committed to implementing these new science advances into operational systems as soon as practicably possible," said report author Hayley Fowler. "This improvement in early warnings of walls of water will help to save lives around the world as the frequency of these short-duration downpours is increasing rapidly in our warming climate."
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