A group of solar energy experts from India is looking into the past, present, and future to provide developers with better insight.
They aren't pulling out a crystal ball to aid their prognostications. Rather, they are leveraging advanced computing, meteorological data dating to 1980, and simulated weather through 2099 to form conclusions about how and where to set up solar farms, according to a study abstract posted in Nature. The team included experts from the Manipal Institute of Technology and the Quantum Research and Centre of Excellence.
The work identified a machine learning model well-suited for the solar sleuths. Machine learning is a branch of artificial intelligence.
"This model demonstrates significant promise for … simulating temporal weather patterns affecting solar irradiance," the researchers wrote in the abstract. "The application delivers precise solar power estimates and financial viability, enabling rapid and effortless site assessments from any location within minutes."
Solar energy is being leveraged around the world, from rooftop arrays that provide homeowners with energy independence to large farms being developed by Meta and other tech giants to offset the runaway data centers' power demand.
It's all part of the shift from planet-warming dirty fuels. "Swift" action is needed to limit the extreme weather, heat waves, and ocean-warming repercussions already being felt around the world as Earth's temperature rises, per the India-based experts, NASA, and other scientists.
Future weather pattern predictions can be of particular value for companies planning larger installations.
"The existing solar-energy planning techniques, which depend on historical data or short-term forecasts, may neglect long-term climate patterns that could affect solar project efficacy," per the abstract.
The summary provided several case studies that highlighted how the data was applied. One looked at the Philippines, where experts noted that the tropical climate suits solar. Increasing energy demand and a government favorable to renewables are also boons. But frequent cloud cover and typhoon risks were reasons for concern, with an estimated 1% to 3% drop in annual solar irradiance by 2050.
Another study focused on a part of Mongolia, where limited infrastructure and dust affect panel performance. Solar irradiance is projected to increase there, mostly during the winter months, per the report.
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In India, researchers concluded that our changing climate will impact solar production differently around the world, depending on cloud cover, temperature patterns, and other factors. Bifacial modules, with the ability to harness light on both sides of the panel, were noted as advantageous as part of the clean energy switch. Real-time updates, neural networks, and other fascinating features are part of the analysis that can be added to the model.
"Further development will be crucial in realizing a sustainable, solar-driven future on a global scale," the experts wrote.
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