NASA scientist issues grim warning 37 years after his original prediction: 'Point of no return'

In 1988, then-NASA scientist James Hansen warned Congress about the dangers of the overheating planet. That alert went unheeded, and 37 years later, Hansen is at the forefront of alarming new research on an impending danger.

What's happening?

Inside Climate News reported that Hansen and a team of international scientists authored a paper that examined the acceleration of changes across the last 15 years. Of the many alarming findings, the most concerning showed the risk of the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has been underestimated. Earlier research suggested it wouldn't collapse this century, but the new study revealed it could shut down in 20-30 years. 

The team warned that while humanity has the capacity to adapt to and mitigate the worst effects of heat waves, droughts, floods, and storms, the collapse of the AMOC is a different matter entirely. 

"The main issue is the sleeping giant, the point of no return, the danger of an AMOC shutdown and large sea level rise," Hansen told ICN.

Why is the AMOC so important?

The AMOC works a bit like a conveyor belt that moves warm water north and cool water south. It is a slow process; it takes a cubic meter of water over 1,000 years to complete the cycle, per NOAA. 

If the AMOC were to collapse, the consequences would be a catastrophe felt worldwide. It has huge implications for food production; shifting the rain belt would sharply reduce crop yields and make extreme weather events even worse. Rapid sea level rise would place millions of homes in the Eastern United States at risk. The relatively mild climate that Western Europe enjoys would devolve into very dry summers and much colder winters. 

What can be done to prevent the collapse?

The paper discusses ideas such as a carbon fee and dividend as well as direct intervention to cut harmful pollution. The researchers are calling for more research into the solutions and the dire need to raise public awareness of the severity of the problem. In the conclusion, Hansen and Co. wrote at length about how special interests have derailed science-backed remedies and the failure of political leaders to address the crisis. 

As bleak as the warning is, the paper ends on an optimistic note, expressing hope for a new generation of politicians who won't throw away the planet's future for a quick buck.

"Why am I optimistic that we can succeed? Young people have demonstrated an extraordinary ability to affect politics without taking any money from special interests," it states.

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