Hurricane watches remain in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti and portions of Jamaica as dangerous Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to strengthen into the fifth hurricane of the Atlantic Hurricane Season this year.
Melissa has already proven to be deadly. Haiti's civil protection agency says three people have already been killed in the country, per the New York Times. Two deaths were the result of a landslide in Port-au-Prince, while the third was caused by a falling tree on the country's south coast in the town of Marigot.
More devastation to the region could be coming with the forecast for the near-stationary storm to move slowly closer to Haiti and Jamaica over the next few days.
"Due to Melissa's slow motion, the risk of a prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica," warns a National Hurricane Center (NHC) statement.
The NHC's key message for Haiti is just as dire. "Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash flooding and landslides across southwestern Haiti by this weekend into early next week," added the NHC statement. "Extensive damage to roads and buildings is expected, potentially isolating communities for an extended period of time."
Melissa is forecast to be a prolific rainmaker, dumping between 10 and 20 inches of rain across portions of southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Monday, with even locally higher amounts possible. The torrential rain will lead to life-threatening flash flooding as well as numerous landslides.
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Tropical Storm Melissa was located around 215 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and 250 miles southwest of Port-Au-Prince, Haiti, moving east/southeast at just two miles per hour early Friday. The storm was packing maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour.
Melissa is expected to take a slow turn toward the northeast and then the north. That should be followed by a westward turn on Saturday, with that same motion continuing through Monday. The forecast track takes the center of Melissa to near or just south of Jamaica early next week, but NHC meteorologists caution that the timing and track of Melissa still remain uncertain.
Friday's NHC forecast discussion for Melissa states that conditions over the next 24 hours still appear favorable for the tropical cyclone to undergo rapid intensification. Some computer models suggest it could reach Category 4 strength or higher, depending on when the rapid intensification begins.
Scientists say our overheating planet is supercharging tropical cyclones. There were 177 landfalling Atlantic tropical cyclones that rapidly intensified, increasing their maximum sustained winds by at least 35 miles per hour in a 24-hour period, from 1980 to 2023, according to non-profit Climate Central. Nearly a fourth of the storms underwent extreme rapid intensification: a jump in maximum sustained winds of at least 58 miles per hour in a 24-hour period.
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Always 👍 "Warming oceans are fueling stronger tropical cyclones — the most costly weather disasters in the U.S.," said Climate Central researchers. "Recent research suggests that warmer sea surface temperatures may contribute to an increased fraction of tropical cyclones that undergo rapid intensification."
Three out of the four hurricanes that have formed during this year's Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Erin, Hurricane Gabrielle, and Hurricane Humberto, all experienced rapid intensification.
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