Scientists issue warning for one of Africa's most vulnerable cities: 'Could end up submerged'

Kenya's second-largest city and a major hub for East African trade is facing a dangerous mix of environmental threats that could bury parts of the city under water within decades.

What's happening?

According to Daily Nation, 100 scientists from 56 countries gathered in Mombasa for a meeting of the world's leading climate researchers, warning that rising seas, worsening heat waves, eroding coastlines, and sinking land are converging to create one of Africa's most at-risk urban centers.

"We are seeing entire communities in the northern coastal strip being pushed inland," Cromwell Lukorito, vice chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a researcher at the University of Nairobi, said. "If this trend continues, even major infrastructure like the Mombasa-Malindi road could end up submerged."

The city sits just meters above sea level. Combined with land subsidence of up to 5 millimeters per year, population growth in low-lying neighborhoods, and predictions of up to 50 centimeters of sea level rise by 2050, the stakes are high. 

Why is this so concerning?

Mombasa is home to 1.2 million people and handles 95% of Kenya's international trade. Flooding would not only displace hundreds of thousands of residents but also disrupt the country's economy.

The threats go beyond submerged streets.

Saltwater intrusion is contaminating freshwater wells, damaging agriculture up to 15 kilometers inland, and costing the coastal economy millions of dollars each year. Mangrove forests, crucial for storm protection and fisheries, have shrunk by 35% since 1990 and continue to retreat. Alongside their agricultural and financial uses, mangroves are also crucial for carbon storage.

These challenges are amplified by human-driven global heating. The burning of coal, oil, and gas creates heat-trapping pollution that warms oceans and melts glaciers, leading to sea level rise that threatens coastal communities worldwide.

What's being done about this issue?

Mombasa is working to adapt. The city's climate action plan (2023-50) looks to protect infrastructure, restore mangroves, and boost resilience in vulnerable neighborhoods. However, leaders say funding remains a major obstacle, with African cities receiving less than 10% of pledged global adaptation finance.

Experts hope the 2027 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report — the first to focus exclusively on cities — will help direct more resources where they're needed. The 2023 report, though comprehensive, did not highlight major cities in its calculations.

People can support change by advocating for stronger coastal protection policies, supporting organizations restoring coastal ecosystems, and educating themselves on critical climate issues.

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